Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms
Extra--tropical winter windstorms are among the most loss--intensive natural hazards in Europe. This thesis is dedicated to advance the understanding of these hazardous events and their uncertainty in various aspects. These aspects include the serial clustering and spatial variability of storm event...
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ftunibirmitheses:oai:etheses.bham.ac.uk:9057 2023-05-15T17:33:22+02:00 Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms Walz, Michael Alexander Leckebusch, Gregor nerc 2019-07-17 text http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/9057/7.hassmallThumbnailVersion/Walz2019PhD.pdf http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/9057/ http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/9057/7/Walz2019PhD.pdf English eng http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/9057/7/Walz2019PhD.pdf Walz, Michael Alexander orcid:0000-0002-6177-5956 (2019). Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms. University of Birmingham. Ph.D. GE Environmental Sciences QC Physics Thesis NonPeerReviewed 2019 ftunibirmitheses 2021-11-15T09:48:52Z Extra--tropical winter windstorms are among the most loss--intensive natural hazards in Europe. This thesis is dedicated to advance the understanding of these hazardous events and their uncertainty in various aspects. These aspects include the serial clustering and spatial variability of storm events, the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds associated with windstorms and an impact assessment of windstorms both in a climatological as well as from a loss--related perspective. The recurring element in all studies are large--scale drivers (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO) which are linked to different features of extra--tropical windstorms, e.g. the inter--annual variability. It can be shown that large--scale drivers are able to explain a considerable amount of variability of windstorms. Seasonal forecast ensemble hindcasts are used to create a physical consistent virtual reality of more than 1500 years. Thus, the uncertainty of these extreme events can be estimated more accurately compared to using century--long reanalysis. This large sample size can also be used to estimate potential extremes with respect to intensity and severity of windstorms more accurately. The findings of these studies are presented in five scientific papers which are included as five chapters in this submitted thesis. Thesis North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Birmingham: eTheses Repository |
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University of Birmingham: eTheses Repository |
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English |
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GE Environmental Sciences QC Physics |
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GE Environmental Sciences QC Physics Walz, Michael Alexander Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms |
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GE Environmental Sciences QC Physics |
description |
Extra--tropical winter windstorms are among the most loss--intensive natural hazards in Europe. This thesis is dedicated to advance the understanding of these hazardous events and their uncertainty in various aspects. These aspects include the serial clustering and spatial variability of storm events, the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds associated with windstorms and an impact assessment of windstorms both in a climatological as well as from a loss--related perspective. The recurring element in all studies are large--scale drivers (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO) which are linked to different features of extra--tropical windstorms, e.g. the inter--annual variability. It can be shown that large--scale drivers are able to explain a considerable amount of variability of windstorms. Seasonal forecast ensemble hindcasts are used to create a physical consistent virtual reality of more than 1500 years. Thus, the uncertainty of these extreme events can be estimated more accurately compared to using century--long reanalysis. This large sample size can also be used to estimate potential extremes with respect to intensity and severity of windstorms more accurately. The findings of these studies are presented in five scientific papers which are included as five chapters in this submitted thesis. |
author2 |
Leckebusch, Gregor nerc |
format |
Thesis |
author |
Walz, Michael Alexander |
author_facet |
Walz, Michael Alexander |
author_sort |
Walz, Michael Alexander |
title |
Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms |
title_short |
Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms |
title_full |
Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms |
title_fullStr |
Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms |
title_sort |
hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/9057/7.hassmallThumbnailVersion/Walz2019PhD.pdf http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/9057/ http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/9057/7/Walz2019PhD.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/9057/7/Walz2019PhD.pdf Walz, Michael Alexander orcid:0000-0002-6177-5956 (2019). Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms. University of Birmingham. Ph.D. |
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