Tropical disturbances in the southeastern North Atlantic. State of the art and future prospects

• Published in: Investigaciones Geográficas
• Main Authors: Dorta Antequera, Pedro, Domínguez Hernández, Alba, Díaz Pacheco, Jaime, López Díez, Abel, Martín Raya, Nerea
• Other Authors: research project MYRIAD-EU: Multi-hazard and sYstemic framework for enhancing Risk-Informed mAnagement and Decision-making in the EU
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Universidad de Alicante 2023
• Subjects: tropical cyclone; tropical storm; climate change; climate risk; ciclón tropical; tormenta tropical; cambio climático; riesgo climático; Partida; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://www.investigacionesgeograficas.com/article/view/22559; https://doi.org/10.14198/INGEO.22559

This study analyzes tropical disturbances in a region usually not affected by these events, the southeastern North Atlantic. This is an extensive area between Macaronesia and the coasts of northwest Africa and the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. In the context of climate change, a statistical analysis has been conducted of the main database of the National Hurricane Center for the Atlantic basin, as well as a bibliographical compilation, in order to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of these phenomena. The starting hypothesis is to verify the existence of an increase in the risk of these situations in the region of study, through research that characterizes and charts these phenomena. The results indicate that, although with long periods of recurrence, some events with notable impacts had occurred before the first systematic records were kept. In addition, over the last fifty years, a much more reliable period from a scientific perspective, there has been an increase in their number, especially in recent decades. Furthermore, an approximate estimate is made of the population likely to be affected by tropical disturbances, which estimates that more than twenty million people are at risk. Se presenta un estudio sobre las perturbaciones tropicales en una región habitualmente no afectada por estos eventos, el Atlántico norte suroriental. Se trata de una extensa área entre la Macaronesia y las costas del noroeste de África y suroeste de la península ibérica. En el contexto del cambio climático se hace un análisis estadístico de la principal base de datos del National Hurricane Center para la cuenca atlántica, así como una recopilación bibliográfica, con el fin de analizar la evolución temporal y espacial de estos fenómenos. La hipótesis de partida es comprobar la existencia de un incremento en el riesgo de estas situaciones en la región de análisis, para lo que se elabora un estudio que las caracteriza y contabiliza. Los resultados señalan que, aunque con periodos de recurrencia largos, se han dado ...