Taking the beat of the Arctic:are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?
Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar...
Published in: | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/e0029842-67b0-46d3-9743-d295bd91689d https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361 |
id |
ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/e0029842-67b0-46d3-9743-d295bd91689d |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/e0029842-67b0-46d3-9743-d295bd91689d 2024-05-19T07:33:28+00:00 Taking the beat of the Arctic:are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? Gauthier, Gilles Ehrich, Dorothée Belke-Brea, Maria Domine, Florent Alisauskas, Ray Clark, Karin Ecke, Frauke Eide, Nina E. Framstad, Erik Frandsen, Jay Gilg, Olivier Henttonen, Heikki Hörnfeldt, Birger Kataev, Gennadiy D. Menyushina, Irina E. Oksanen, Lauri Oksanen, Tarja Olofsson, Johan Samelius, Gustaf Sittler, Benoit Smith, Paul A. Sokolov, Aleksandr A. Sokolova, Natalia A. Schmidt, Niels M. 2024-02 https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/e0029842-67b0-46d3-9743-d295bd91689d https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361 eng eng https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/e0029842-67b0-46d3-9743-d295bd91689d info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Gauthier , G , Ehrich , D , Belke-Brea , M , Domine , F , Alisauskas , R , Clark , K , Ecke , F , Eide , N E , Framstad , E , Frandsen , J , Gilg , O , Henttonen , H , Hörnfeldt , B , Kataev , G D , Menyushina , I E , Oksanen , L , Oksanen , T , Olofsson , J , Samelius , G , Sittler , B , Smith , P A , Sokolov , A A , Sokolova , N A & Schmidt , N M 2024 , ' Taking the beat of the Arctic : are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? ' , Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , vol. 291 , no. 2016 , 20232361 . https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361 Animals Arctic Regions Arvicolinae Ecosystem Food Chain Population Dynamics Seasons article 2024 ftuniaarhuspubl https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361 2024-05-01T23:49:50Z Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Tundra Aarhus University: Research Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 291 2016 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Aarhus University: Research |
op_collection_id |
ftuniaarhuspubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Animals Arctic Regions Arvicolinae Ecosystem Food Chain Population Dynamics Seasons |
spellingShingle |
Animals Arctic Regions Arvicolinae Ecosystem Food Chain Population Dynamics Seasons Gauthier, Gilles Ehrich, Dorothée Belke-Brea, Maria Domine, Florent Alisauskas, Ray Clark, Karin Ecke, Frauke Eide, Nina E. Framstad, Erik Frandsen, Jay Gilg, Olivier Henttonen, Heikki Hörnfeldt, Birger Kataev, Gennadiy D. Menyushina, Irina E. Oksanen, Lauri Oksanen, Tarja Olofsson, Johan Samelius, Gustaf Sittler, Benoit Smith, Paul A. Sokolov, Aleksandr A. Sokolova, Natalia A. Schmidt, Niels M. Taking the beat of the Arctic:are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? |
topic_facet |
Animals Arctic Regions Arvicolinae Ecosystem Food Chain Population Dynamics Seasons |
description |
Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gauthier, Gilles Ehrich, Dorothée Belke-Brea, Maria Domine, Florent Alisauskas, Ray Clark, Karin Ecke, Frauke Eide, Nina E. Framstad, Erik Frandsen, Jay Gilg, Olivier Henttonen, Heikki Hörnfeldt, Birger Kataev, Gennadiy D. Menyushina, Irina E. Oksanen, Lauri Oksanen, Tarja Olofsson, Johan Samelius, Gustaf Sittler, Benoit Smith, Paul A. Sokolov, Aleksandr A. Sokolova, Natalia A. Schmidt, Niels M. |
author_facet |
Gauthier, Gilles Ehrich, Dorothée Belke-Brea, Maria Domine, Florent Alisauskas, Ray Clark, Karin Ecke, Frauke Eide, Nina E. Framstad, Erik Frandsen, Jay Gilg, Olivier Henttonen, Heikki Hörnfeldt, Birger Kataev, Gennadiy D. Menyushina, Irina E. Oksanen, Lauri Oksanen, Tarja Olofsson, Johan Samelius, Gustaf Sittler, Benoit Smith, Paul A. Sokolov, Aleksandr A. Sokolova, Natalia A. Schmidt, Niels M. |
author_sort |
Gauthier, Gilles |
title |
Taking the beat of the Arctic:are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? |
title_short |
Taking the beat of the Arctic:are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? |
title_full |
Taking the beat of the Arctic:are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? |
title_fullStr |
Taking the beat of the Arctic:are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Taking the beat of the Arctic:are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? |
title_sort |
taking the beat of the arctic:are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/e0029842-67b0-46d3-9743-d295bd91689d https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Tundra |
op_source |
Gauthier , G , Ehrich , D , Belke-Brea , M , Domine , F , Alisauskas , R , Clark , K , Ecke , F , Eide , N E , Framstad , E , Frandsen , J , Gilg , O , Henttonen , H , Hörnfeldt , B , Kataev , G D , Menyushina , I E , Oksanen , L , Oksanen , T , Olofsson , J , Samelius , G , Sittler , B , Smith , P A , Sokolov , A A , Sokolova , N A & Schmidt , N M 2024 , ' Taking the beat of the Arctic : are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? ' , Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , vol. 291 , no. 2016 , 20232361 . https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361 |
op_relation |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/e0029842-67b0-46d3-9743-d295bd91689d |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
291 |
container_issue |
2016 |
_version_ |
1799471547005534208 |