Tracing the climate signal:mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase
Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in na...
Published in: | Scientific Reports |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/97aaf257-7bfe-40c9-8b71-73af0e91602f https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37719-9 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061050514&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
id |
ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/97aaf257-7bfe-40c9-8b71-73af0e91602f |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/97aaf257-7bfe-40c9-8b71-73af0e91602f 2024-02-04T09:56:37+01:00 Tracing the climate signal:mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase Christensen, Torben Røjle Arora, Vivek K. Gauss, Michael Höglund-Isaksson, Lena Parmentier, Frans Jan W. 2019-12 https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/97aaf257-7bfe-40c9-8b71-73af0e91602f https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37719-9 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061050514&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/97aaf257-7bfe-40c9-8b71-73af0e91602f info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Christensen , T R , Arora , V K , Gauss , M , Höglund-Isaksson , L & Parmentier , F J W 2019 , ' Tracing the climate signal : mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase ' , Scientific Reports , vol. 9 , 1146 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37719-9 BUDGET PERMAFROST CARBON article 2019 ftuniaarhuspubl https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37719-9 2024-01-11T00:00:41Z Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in natural emissions together with maximum technically feasible reductions in anthropogenic emissions to evaluate their potential influence on future atmospheric methane concentrations and associated radiative forcing (RF). The largest amplification of natural emissions yields up to 42% higher atmospheric methane concentrations by the year 2100 compared with no change in natural emissions. The most likely scenarios are lower than this, while anthropogenic emission reductions may have a much greater yielding effect, with the potential of halving atmospheric methane concentrations by 2100 compared to when anthropogenic emissions continue to increase as in a business-as-usual case. In a broader perspective, it is shown that man-made emissions can be reduced sufficiently to limit methane-caused climate warming by 2100 even in the case of an uncontrolled natural Arctic methane emission feedback, but this requires a committed, global effort towards maximum feasible reductions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic arctic methane Arctic permafrost Aarhus University: Research Arctic Scientific Reports 9 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Aarhus University: Research |
op_collection_id |
ftuniaarhuspubl |
language |
English |
topic |
BUDGET PERMAFROST CARBON |
spellingShingle |
BUDGET PERMAFROST CARBON Christensen, Torben Røjle Arora, Vivek K. Gauss, Michael Höglund-Isaksson, Lena Parmentier, Frans Jan W. Tracing the climate signal:mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase |
topic_facet |
BUDGET PERMAFROST CARBON |
description |
Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in natural emissions together with maximum technically feasible reductions in anthropogenic emissions to evaluate their potential influence on future atmospheric methane concentrations and associated radiative forcing (RF). The largest amplification of natural emissions yields up to 42% higher atmospheric methane concentrations by the year 2100 compared with no change in natural emissions. The most likely scenarios are lower than this, while anthropogenic emission reductions may have a much greater yielding effect, with the potential of halving atmospheric methane concentrations by 2100 compared to when anthropogenic emissions continue to increase as in a business-as-usual case. In a broader perspective, it is shown that man-made emissions can be reduced sufficiently to limit methane-caused climate warming by 2100 even in the case of an uncontrolled natural Arctic methane emission feedback, but this requires a committed, global effort towards maximum feasible reductions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Christensen, Torben Røjle Arora, Vivek K. Gauss, Michael Höglund-Isaksson, Lena Parmentier, Frans Jan W. |
author_facet |
Christensen, Torben Røjle Arora, Vivek K. Gauss, Michael Höglund-Isaksson, Lena Parmentier, Frans Jan W. |
author_sort |
Christensen, Torben Røjle |
title |
Tracing the climate signal:mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase |
title_short |
Tracing the climate signal:mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase |
title_full |
Tracing the climate signal:mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase |
title_fullStr |
Tracing the climate signal:mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tracing the climate signal:mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase |
title_sort |
tracing the climate signal:mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large arctic natural emission increase |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/97aaf257-7bfe-40c9-8b71-73af0e91602f https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37719-9 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061050514&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic arctic methane Arctic permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic arctic methane Arctic permafrost |
op_source |
Christensen , T R , Arora , V K , Gauss , M , Höglund-Isaksson , L & Parmentier , F J W 2019 , ' Tracing the climate signal : mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase ' , Scientific Reports , vol. 9 , 1146 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37719-9 |
op_relation |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/97aaf257-7bfe-40c9-8b71-73af0e91602f |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37719-9 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1789961048126652416 |