Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimat...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2016
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Online Access: | https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/92aa0def-8aa3-43cd-8c77-cacd11fadecd https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
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ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/92aa0def-8aa3-43cd-8c77-cacd11fadecd |
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openpolar |
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Open Polar |
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Aarhus University: Research |
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language |
English |
topic |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion CLIMATE-CHANGE BOREAL FOREST NITROGEN DEPOSITION INTERIOR ALASKA ARCTIC TUNDRA FIRE SEQUESTRATION VULNERABILITY ECOSYSTEMS STORAGE |
spellingShingle |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion CLIMATE-CHANGE BOREAL FOREST NITROGEN DEPOSITION INTERIOR ALASKA ARCTIC TUNDRA FIRE SEQUESTRATION VULNERABILITY ECOSYSTEMS STORAGE Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A.G. Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M.W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F. Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie W Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J McClelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Pare, David Parisien, Marc-Andre Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha K. Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robards, Martin Rogers, Brendan M. Schaedel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G.M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J. Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment |
topic_facet |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion CLIMATE-CHANGE BOREAL FOREST NITROGEN DEPOSITION INTERIOR ALASKA ARCTIC TUNDRA FIRE SEQUESTRATION VULNERABILITY ECOSYSTEMS STORAGE |
description |
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A.G. Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M.W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F. Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie W Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J McClelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Pare, David Parisien, Marc-Andre Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha K. Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robards, Martin Rogers, Brendan M. Schaedel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G.M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J. Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei |
author_facet |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A.G. Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M.W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F. Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie W Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J McClelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Pare, David Parisien, Marc-Andre Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha K. Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robards, Martin Rogers, Brendan M. Schaedel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G.M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J. Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei |
author_sort |
Abbott, Benjamin W. |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/92aa0def-8aa3-43cd-8c77-cacd11fadecd https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra Alaska |
op_source |
Abbott , B W , Jones , J B , Schuur , E A G , Chapin , F S , Bowden , W B , Bret-Harte , M S , Epstein , H E , Flannigan , M D , Harms , T K , Hollingsworth , T N , Mack , M C , McGuire , A D , Natali , S M , Rocha , A V , Tank , S E , Turetsky , M R , Vonk , J E , Wickland , K P , Aiken , G R , Alexander , H D , Amon , R M W , Benscoter , B W , Bergeron , Y , Bishop , K , Blarquez , O , Bond-Lamberty , B , Breen , A L , Buffam , I , Cai , Y , Carcaillet , C , Carey , S K , Chen , J M , Chen , H Y H , Christensen , T R , Cooper , L W , Cornelissen , J H C , de Groot , W J , DeLuca , T H , Dorrepaal , E , Fetcher , N , Finlay , J C , Forbes , B C , French , N H F , Gauthier , S , Girardin , M P , Goetz , S J , Goldammer , J G , Gough , L , Grogan , P , Guo , L , Higuera , P E , Hinzman , L , Hu , F S , Hugelius , G , Jafarov , E E , Jandt , R , Johnstone , J F , Karlsson , J , Kasischke , E S , Kattner , G , Kelly , R , Keuper , F , Kling , G W , Kortelainen , P , Kouki , J , Kuhry , P , Laudon , H , Laurion , I , Macdonald , R W , Mann , P J , Martikainen , P J , McClelland , J W , Molau , U , Oberbauer , S F , Olefeldt , D , Pare , D , Parisien , M-A , Payette , S , Peng , C , Pokrovsky , O S , Rastetter , E B , Raymond , P A , Raynolds , M K , Rein , G , Reynolds , J F , Robards , M , Rogers , B M , Schaedel , C , Schaefer , K , Schmidt , I K , Shvidenko , A , Sky , J , Spencer , R G M , Starr , G , Striegl , R G , Teisserenc , R , Tranvik , L J , Virtanen , T , Welker , J M & Zimov , S 2016 , ' Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment ' , Environmental Research Letters , vol. 11 , no. 3 , 034014 . https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
op_relation |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/92aa0def-8aa3-43cd-8c77-cacd11fadecd |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034014 |
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spelling |
ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/92aa0def-8aa3-43cd-8c77-cacd11fadecd 2024-05-19T07:35:14+00:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A.G. Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M.W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F. Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie W Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J McClelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Pare, David Parisien, Marc-Andre Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha K. Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robards, Martin Rogers, Brendan M. Schaedel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G.M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J. Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei 2016-03 https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/92aa0def-8aa3-43cd-8c77-cacd11fadecd https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 eng eng https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/92aa0def-8aa3-43cd-8c77-cacd11fadecd info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Abbott , B W , Jones , J B , Schuur , E A G , Chapin , F S , Bowden , W B , Bret-Harte , M S , Epstein , H E , Flannigan , M D , Harms , T K , Hollingsworth , T N , Mack , M C , McGuire , A D , Natali , S M , Rocha , A V , Tank , S E , Turetsky , M R , Vonk , J E , Wickland , K P , Aiken , G R , Alexander , H D , Amon , R M W , Benscoter , B W , Bergeron , Y , Bishop , K , Blarquez , O , Bond-Lamberty , B , Breen , A L , Buffam , I , Cai , Y , Carcaillet , C , Carey , S K , Chen , J M , Chen , H Y H , Christensen , T R , Cooper , L W , Cornelissen , J H C , de Groot , W J , DeLuca , T H , Dorrepaal , E , Fetcher , N , Finlay , J C , Forbes , B C , French , N H F , Gauthier , S , Girardin , M P , Goetz , S J , Goldammer , J G , Gough , L , Grogan , P , Guo , L , Higuera , P E , Hinzman , L , Hu , F S , Hugelius , G , Jafarov , E E , Jandt , R , Johnstone , J F , Karlsson , J , Kasischke , E S , Kattner , G , Kelly , R , Keuper , F , Kling , G W , Kortelainen , P , Kouki , J , Kuhry , P , Laudon , H , Laurion , I , Macdonald , R W , Mann , P J , Martikainen , P J , McClelland , J W , Molau , U , Oberbauer , S F , Olefeldt , D , Pare , D , Parisien , M-A , Payette , S , Peng , C , Pokrovsky , O S , Rastetter , E B , Raymond , P A , Raynolds , M K , Rein , G , Reynolds , J F , Robards , M , Rogers , B M , Schaedel , C , Schaefer , K , Schmidt , I K , Shvidenko , A , Sky , J , Spencer , R G M , Starr , G , Striegl , R G , Teisserenc , R , Tranvik , L J , Virtanen , T , Welker , J M & Zimov , S 2016 , ' Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment ' , Environmental Research Letters , vol. 11 , no. 3 , 034014 . https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion CLIMATE-CHANGE BOREAL FOREST NITROGEN DEPOSITION INTERIOR ALASKA ARCTIC TUNDRA FIRE SEQUESTRATION VULNERABILITY ECOSYSTEMS STORAGE article 2016 ftuniaarhuspubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2024-05-01T23:44:25Z As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra Alaska Aarhus University: Research Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034014 |