Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland
The future development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is determined by a number of factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. For sound projections of impacts of permafrost thaw, scaling procedures are of paramount importance. We present numerical simulations of present an...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Language: | English |
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2015
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Online Access: | https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/publications/future-permafrost-conditions-along-environmental-gradients-in-zackenberg-greenland(6430555a-19c1-4e16-b7d4-c0f74ff24aa8).html https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015 |
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ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/6430555a-19c1-4e16-b7d4-c0f74ff24aa8 2023-05-15T13:03:24+02:00 Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland Westermann, Sebastian Elberling, Bo Pedersen, Stine Højlund Stendel, Martin Ulf Hansen, Birger E. Liston, Glen 2015 https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/publications/future-permafrost-conditions-along-environmental-gradients-in-zackenberg-greenland(6430555a-19c1-4e16-b7d4-c0f74ff24aa8).html https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Westermann , S , Elberling , B , Pedersen , S H , Stendel , M , Ulf Hansen , B & E. Liston , G 2015 , ' Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland ' , Cryosphere , vol. 9 , pp. 719-735 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015 article 2015 ftuniaarhuspubl https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015 2023-02-15T23:55:12Z The future development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is determined by a number of factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. For sound projections of impacts of permafrost thaw, scaling procedures are of paramount importance. We present numerical simulations of present and future ground temperatures at 10 m resolution for a 4 km long transect across the lower Zackenberg valley in northeast Greenland. The results are based on stepwise downscaling of future projections derived from general circulation model using observational data, snow redistribution modeling, remote sensing data and a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ measurements of thaw depths at two CALM sites and near-surface ground temperatures at 17 sites suggests agreement within 0.10 m for the maximum thaw depth and 1 °C for annual average ground temperature. Until 2100, modeled ground temperatures at 10 m depth warm by about 5 °C and the active layer thickness increases by about 30%, in conjunction with a warming of average near-surface summer soil temperatures by 2 °C. While ground temperatures at 10 m depth remain below 0 °C until 2100 in all model grid cells, positive annual average temperatures are modeled at 1 m depth for a few years and grid cells at the end of this century. The ensemble of all 10 m model grid cells highlights the significant spatial variability of the ground thermal regime which is not accessible in traditional coarse-scale modeling approaches. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Greenland permafrost Zackenberg Aarhus University: Research Greenland The Cryosphere 9 2 719 735 |
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Open Polar |
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Aarhus University: Research |
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ftuniaarhuspubl |
language |
English |
description |
The future development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is determined by a number of factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. For sound projections of impacts of permafrost thaw, scaling procedures are of paramount importance. We present numerical simulations of present and future ground temperatures at 10 m resolution for a 4 km long transect across the lower Zackenberg valley in northeast Greenland. The results are based on stepwise downscaling of future projections derived from general circulation model using observational data, snow redistribution modeling, remote sensing data and a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ measurements of thaw depths at two CALM sites and near-surface ground temperatures at 17 sites suggests agreement within 0.10 m for the maximum thaw depth and 1 °C for annual average ground temperature. Until 2100, modeled ground temperatures at 10 m depth warm by about 5 °C and the active layer thickness increases by about 30%, in conjunction with a warming of average near-surface summer soil temperatures by 2 °C. While ground temperatures at 10 m depth remain below 0 °C until 2100 in all model grid cells, positive annual average temperatures are modeled at 1 m depth for a few years and grid cells at the end of this century. The ensemble of all 10 m model grid cells highlights the significant spatial variability of the ground thermal regime which is not accessible in traditional coarse-scale modeling approaches. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Westermann, Sebastian Elberling, Bo Pedersen, Stine Højlund Stendel, Martin Ulf Hansen, Birger E. Liston, Glen |
spellingShingle |
Westermann, Sebastian Elberling, Bo Pedersen, Stine Højlund Stendel, Martin Ulf Hansen, Birger E. Liston, Glen Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland |
author_facet |
Westermann, Sebastian Elberling, Bo Pedersen, Stine Højlund Stendel, Martin Ulf Hansen, Birger E. Liston, Glen |
author_sort |
Westermann, Sebastian |
title |
Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland |
title_short |
Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland |
title_full |
Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland |
title_fullStr |
Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland |
title_sort |
future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in zackenberg, greenland |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/publications/future-permafrost-conditions-along-environmental-gradients-in-zackenberg-greenland(6430555a-19c1-4e16-b7d4-c0f74ff24aa8).html https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Active layer thickness Greenland permafrost Zackenberg |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Greenland permafrost Zackenberg |
op_source |
Westermann , S , Elberling , B , Pedersen , S H , Stendel , M , Ulf Hansen , B & E. Liston , G 2015 , ' Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland ' , Cryosphere , vol. 9 , pp. 719-735 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
719 |
op_container_end_page |
735 |
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1766335946345676800 |