Climate change and Arctic ecosystems:2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections
Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distribution...
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2003
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ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/48eec389-d8cf-466e-a060-f80853a4683d 2023-12-31T10:01:57+01:00 Climate change and Arctic ecosystems:2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections Kaplan, J. O. Bigelow, N. H. Prentice, I. C. Harrison, S. P. Bartlein, P. J. Christensen, T. R. Cramer, W. Matveyeva, N. V. McGuire, A. D. Murray, D. F. Razzhivin, V. Y. Smith, B. Walker, D. A. Anderson, P. M. Andreev, A. A. Brubaker, L. B. Edwards, M. E. Lozhkin, A. V. 2003-10-16 https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/publications/climate-change-and-arctic-ecosystems(48eec389-d8cf-466e-a060-f80853a4683d).html http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0346758171&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/publications/climate-change-and-arctic-ecosystems(48eec389-d8cf-466e-a060-f80853a4683d).html info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Kaplan , J O , Bigelow , N H , Prentice , I C , Harrison , S P , Bartlein , P J , Christensen , T R , Cramer , W , Matveyeva , N V , McGuire , A D , Murray , D F , Razzhivin , V Y , Smith , B , Walker , D A , Anderson , P M , Andreev , A A , Brubaker , L B , Edwards , M E & Lozhkin , A V 2003 , ' Climate change and Arctic ecosystems : 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections ' , Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres , vol. 108 , no. 19 . Biogeography Biome Ice age Mammoths Tundra Vegetation modeling article 2003 ftuniaarhuspubl 2023-12-07T00:03:09Z Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO 2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Tundra Beringia Siberia Aarhus University: Research |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Aarhus University: Research |
op_collection_id |
ftuniaarhuspubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Biogeography Biome Ice age Mammoths Tundra Vegetation modeling |
spellingShingle |
Biogeography Biome Ice age Mammoths Tundra Vegetation modeling Kaplan, J. O. Bigelow, N. H. Prentice, I. C. Harrison, S. P. Bartlein, P. J. Christensen, T. R. Cramer, W. Matveyeva, N. V. McGuire, A. D. Murray, D. F. Razzhivin, V. Y. Smith, B. Walker, D. A. Anderson, P. M. Andreev, A. A. Brubaker, L. B. Edwards, M. E. Lozhkin, A. V. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems:2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections |
topic_facet |
Biogeography Biome Ice age Mammoths Tundra Vegetation modeling |
description |
Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO 2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kaplan, J. O. Bigelow, N. H. Prentice, I. C. Harrison, S. P. Bartlein, P. J. Christensen, T. R. Cramer, W. Matveyeva, N. V. McGuire, A. D. Murray, D. F. Razzhivin, V. Y. Smith, B. Walker, D. A. Anderson, P. M. Andreev, A. A. Brubaker, L. B. Edwards, M. E. Lozhkin, A. V. |
author_facet |
Kaplan, J. O. Bigelow, N. H. Prentice, I. C. Harrison, S. P. Bartlein, P. J. Christensen, T. R. Cramer, W. Matveyeva, N. V. McGuire, A. D. Murray, D. F. Razzhivin, V. Y. Smith, B. Walker, D. A. Anderson, P. M. Andreev, A. A. Brubaker, L. B. Edwards, M. E. Lozhkin, A. V. |
author_sort |
Kaplan, J. O. |
title |
Climate change and Arctic ecosystems:2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections |
title_short |
Climate change and Arctic ecosystems:2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections |
title_full |
Climate change and Arctic ecosystems:2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections |
title_fullStr |
Climate change and Arctic ecosystems:2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change and Arctic ecosystems:2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections |
title_sort |
climate change and arctic ecosystems:2. modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/publications/climate-change-and-arctic-ecosystems(48eec389-d8cf-466e-a060-f80853a4683d).html http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0346758171&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Tundra Beringia Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Tundra Beringia Siberia |
op_source |
Kaplan , J O , Bigelow , N H , Prentice , I C , Harrison , S P , Bartlein , P J , Christensen , T R , Cramer , W , Matveyeva , N V , McGuire , A D , Murray , D F , Razzhivin , V Y , Smith , B , Walker , D A , Anderson , P M , Andreev , A A , Brubaker , L B , Edwards , M E & Lozhkin , A V 2003 , ' Climate change and Arctic ecosystems : 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections ' , Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres , vol. 108 , no. 19 . |
op_relation |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/publications/climate-change-and-arctic-ecosystems(48eec389-d8cf-466e-a060-f80853a4683d).html |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
_version_ |
1786808005087461376 |