Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics
Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2021
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Online Access: | https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/3a9658bd-c8ec-4126-8f8e-5f8fe2f6a9e7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85099029983&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/3a9658bd-c8ec-4126-8f8e-5f8fe2f6a9e7 2024-02-11T09:59:32+01:00 Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics Desforges, Jean Pierre Marques, Gonçalo M. Beumer, Larissa Teresa Chimienti, Marianna Hansen, Lars Holst Pedersen, Stine Højlund Schmidt, Niels Martin van Beest, Floris 2021-05 https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/3a9658bd-c8ec-4126-8f8e-5f8fe2f6a9e7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85099029983&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/3a9658bd-c8ec-4126-8f8e-5f8fe2f6a9e7 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Desforges , J P , Marques , G M , Beumer , L T , Chimienti , M , Hansen , L H , Pedersen , S H , Schmidt , N M & van Beest , F 2021 , ' Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 27 , no. 9 , pp. 1755-1771 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 NDVI climate change dynamic energy budget environmental variability fitness individual-based model life history population dynamics snow ungulates article 2021 ftuniaarhuspubl https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 2024-01-18T00:00:32Z Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially devastating impacts on resident populations. Here, we make use of a parameterized full life cycle, individual-based energy budget model for wild muskoxen, coupling year-round environmental data with detailed ontogenic metabolic physiology. We show how winter food accessibility, summer food availability, and density dependence drive seasonal dynamics of energy storage and thus life history and population dynamics. Winter forage accessibility defined by snow depth, more than summer forage availability, was the primary determinant of muskox population dynamics through impacts on calf recruitment and longer term carryover effects of maternal investment. Simulations of various seasonal snow depth and plant biomass and quality profiles revealed that timing of and improved/limited winter forage accessibility had marked influence on calf recruitment (±10–80%). Impacts on recruitment were the cumulative result of condition-driven reproductive performance at multiple time points across the reproductive period (ovulation to calf weaning) as a trade-off between survival and reproduction. Seasonal and generational condition effects of snow-rich winters interacted with age structure and density to cause pronounced long-term consequences on population growth and structure, with predicted population recovery times from even moderate disturbances of 10 years or more. Our results show how alteration in winter forage accessibility, mediated by snow depth, impacts the dynamics of northern herbivore populations. Further, we present here a mechanistic and state-based model framework to assess future scenarios of environmental change, such as increased or decreased snowfall or plant biomass and quality to impact winter and summer forage ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change muskox Aarhus University: Research Arctic Global Change Biology 27 9 1755 1771 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Aarhus University: Research |
op_collection_id |
ftuniaarhuspubl |
language |
English |
topic |
NDVI climate change dynamic energy budget environmental variability fitness individual-based model life history population dynamics snow ungulates |
spellingShingle |
NDVI climate change dynamic energy budget environmental variability fitness individual-based model life history population dynamics snow ungulates Desforges, Jean Pierre Marques, Gonçalo M. Beumer, Larissa Teresa Chimienti, Marianna Hansen, Lars Holst Pedersen, Stine Højlund Schmidt, Niels Martin van Beest, Floris Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
topic_facet |
NDVI climate change dynamic energy budget environmental variability fitness individual-based model life history population dynamics snow ungulates |
description |
Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially devastating impacts on resident populations. Here, we make use of a parameterized full life cycle, individual-based energy budget model for wild muskoxen, coupling year-round environmental data with detailed ontogenic metabolic physiology. We show how winter food accessibility, summer food availability, and density dependence drive seasonal dynamics of energy storage and thus life history and population dynamics. Winter forage accessibility defined by snow depth, more than summer forage availability, was the primary determinant of muskox population dynamics through impacts on calf recruitment and longer term carryover effects of maternal investment. Simulations of various seasonal snow depth and plant biomass and quality profiles revealed that timing of and improved/limited winter forage accessibility had marked influence on calf recruitment (±10–80%). Impacts on recruitment were the cumulative result of condition-driven reproductive performance at multiple time points across the reproductive period (ovulation to calf weaning) as a trade-off between survival and reproduction. Seasonal and generational condition effects of snow-rich winters interacted with age structure and density to cause pronounced long-term consequences on population growth and structure, with predicted population recovery times from even moderate disturbances of 10 years or more. Our results show how alteration in winter forage accessibility, mediated by snow depth, impacts the dynamics of northern herbivore populations. Further, we present here a mechanistic and state-based model framework to assess future scenarios of environmental change, such as increased or decreased snowfall or plant biomass and quality to impact winter and summer forage ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Desforges, Jean Pierre Marques, Gonçalo M. Beumer, Larissa Teresa Chimienti, Marianna Hansen, Lars Holst Pedersen, Stine Højlund Schmidt, Niels Martin van Beest, Floris |
author_facet |
Desforges, Jean Pierre Marques, Gonçalo M. Beumer, Larissa Teresa Chimienti, Marianna Hansen, Lars Holst Pedersen, Stine Højlund Schmidt, Niels Martin van Beest, Floris |
author_sort |
Desforges, Jean Pierre |
title |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_short |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_full |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_fullStr |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_sort |
environment and physiology shape arctic ungulate population dynamics |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/3a9658bd-c8ec-4126-8f8e-5f8fe2f6a9e7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85099029983&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change muskox |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change muskox |
op_source |
Desforges , J P , Marques , G M , Beumer , L T , Chimienti , M , Hansen , L H , Pedersen , S H , Schmidt , N M & van Beest , F 2021 , ' Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 27 , no. 9 , pp. 1755-1771 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 |
op_relation |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/3a9658bd-c8ec-4126-8f8e-5f8fe2f6a9e7 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
1755 |
op_container_end_page |
1771 |
_version_ |
1790595390290001920 |