Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome
Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/347331d1-f7e7-4cee-8359-da335b552c32 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85163663396&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
id |
ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/347331d1-f7e7-4cee-8359-da335b552c32 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftuniaarhuspubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/347331d1-f7e7-4cee-8359-da335b552c32 2024-09-09T20:12:13+00:00 Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome García Criado, Mariana Myers-Smith, Isla H. Bjorkman, Anne D. Normand, Signe Blach-Overgaard, Anne Thomas, Haydn J.D. Eskelinen, Anu Happonen, Konsta Alatalo, Juha M. Anadon-Rosell, Alba Aubin, Isabelle te Beest, Mariska Betway-May, Katlyn R. Blok, Daan Buras, Allan Cerabolini, Bruno E.L. Christie, Katherine Cornelissen, J. Hans C. Forbes, Bruce C. Frei, Esther R. Grogan, Paul Hermanutz, Luise Hollister, Robert D. Hudson, James Iturrate-Garcia, Maitane Kaarlejärvi, Elina Kleyer, Michael Lamarque, Laurent J. Lembrechts, Jonas J. Lévesque, Esther Luoto, Miska Macek, Petr May, Jeremy L. Prevéy, Janet S. Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela Sheremetiev, Serge N. Siegwart Collier, Laura Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A. Trant, Andrew Venn, Susanna E. Virkkala, Anna Maria 2023-12 https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/347331d1-f7e7-4cee-8359-da335b552c32 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85163663396&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/347331d1-f7e7-4cee-8359-da335b552c32 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess García Criado , M , Myers-Smith , I H , Bjorkman , A D , Normand , S , Blach-Overgaard , A , Thomas , H J D , Eskelinen , A , Happonen , K , Alatalo , J M , Anadon-Rosell , A , Aubin , I , te Beest , M , Betway-May , K R , Blok , D , Buras , A , Cerabolini , B E L , Christie , K , Cornelissen , J H C , Forbes , B C , Frei , E R , Grogan , P , Hermanutz , L , Hollister , R D , Hudson , J , Iturrate-Garcia , M , Kaarlejärvi , E , Kleyer , M , Lamarque , L J , Lembrechts , J J , Lévesque , E , Luoto , M , Macek , P , May , J L , Prevéy , J S , Schaepman-Strub , G , Sheremetiev , S N , Siegwart Collier , L , Soudzilovskaia , N A , Trant , A , Venn , S E & Virkkala , A M 2023 , ' Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome ' , Nature Communications , vol. 14 , no. 1 , 3837 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 article 2023 ftuniaarhuspubl https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 2024-06-18T14:24:25Z Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra Aarhus University: Research Nature Communications 14 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Aarhus University: Research |
op_collection_id |
ftuniaarhuspubl |
language |
English |
description |
Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
García Criado, Mariana Myers-Smith, Isla H. Bjorkman, Anne D. Normand, Signe Blach-Overgaard, Anne Thomas, Haydn J.D. Eskelinen, Anu Happonen, Konsta Alatalo, Juha M. Anadon-Rosell, Alba Aubin, Isabelle te Beest, Mariska Betway-May, Katlyn R. Blok, Daan Buras, Allan Cerabolini, Bruno E.L. Christie, Katherine Cornelissen, J. Hans C. Forbes, Bruce C. Frei, Esther R. Grogan, Paul Hermanutz, Luise Hollister, Robert D. Hudson, James Iturrate-Garcia, Maitane Kaarlejärvi, Elina Kleyer, Michael Lamarque, Laurent J. Lembrechts, Jonas J. Lévesque, Esther Luoto, Miska Macek, Petr May, Jeremy L. Prevéy, Janet S. Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela Sheremetiev, Serge N. Siegwart Collier, Laura Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A. Trant, Andrew Venn, Susanna E. Virkkala, Anna Maria |
spellingShingle |
García Criado, Mariana Myers-Smith, Isla H. Bjorkman, Anne D. Normand, Signe Blach-Overgaard, Anne Thomas, Haydn J.D. Eskelinen, Anu Happonen, Konsta Alatalo, Juha M. Anadon-Rosell, Alba Aubin, Isabelle te Beest, Mariska Betway-May, Katlyn R. Blok, Daan Buras, Allan Cerabolini, Bruno E.L. Christie, Katherine Cornelissen, J. Hans C. Forbes, Bruce C. Frei, Esther R. Grogan, Paul Hermanutz, Luise Hollister, Robert D. Hudson, James Iturrate-Garcia, Maitane Kaarlejärvi, Elina Kleyer, Michael Lamarque, Laurent J. Lembrechts, Jonas J. Lévesque, Esther Luoto, Miska Macek, Petr May, Jeremy L. Prevéy, Janet S. Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela Sheremetiev, Serge N. Siegwart Collier, Laura Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A. Trant, Andrew Venn, Susanna E. Virkkala, Anna Maria Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
author_facet |
García Criado, Mariana Myers-Smith, Isla H. Bjorkman, Anne D. Normand, Signe Blach-Overgaard, Anne Thomas, Haydn J.D. Eskelinen, Anu Happonen, Konsta Alatalo, Juha M. Anadon-Rosell, Alba Aubin, Isabelle te Beest, Mariska Betway-May, Katlyn R. Blok, Daan Buras, Allan Cerabolini, Bruno E.L. Christie, Katherine Cornelissen, J. Hans C. Forbes, Bruce C. Frei, Esther R. Grogan, Paul Hermanutz, Luise Hollister, Robert D. Hudson, James Iturrate-Garcia, Maitane Kaarlejärvi, Elina Kleyer, Michael Lamarque, Laurent J. Lembrechts, Jonas J. Lévesque, Esther Luoto, Miska Macek, Petr May, Jeremy L. Prevéy, Janet S. Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela Sheremetiev, Serge N. Siegwart Collier, Laura Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A. Trant, Andrew Venn, Susanna E. Virkkala, Anna Maria |
author_sort |
García Criado, Mariana |
title |
Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
title_short |
Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
title_full |
Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
title_fullStr |
Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
title_full_unstemmed |
Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
title_sort |
plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/347331d1-f7e7-4cee-8359-da335b552c32 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85163663396&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Tundra |
genre_facet |
Tundra |
op_source |
García Criado , M , Myers-Smith , I H , Bjorkman , A D , Normand , S , Blach-Overgaard , A , Thomas , H J D , Eskelinen , A , Happonen , K , Alatalo , J M , Anadon-Rosell , A , Aubin , I , te Beest , M , Betway-May , K R , Blok , D , Buras , A , Cerabolini , B E L , Christie , K , Cornelissen , J H C , Forbes , B C , Frei , E R , Grogan , P , Hermanutz , L , Hollister , R D , Hudson , J , Iturrate-Garcia , M , Kaarlejärvi , E , Kleyer , M , Lamarque , L J , Lembrechts , J J , Lévesque , E , Luoto , M , Macek , P , May , J L , Prevéy , J S , Schaepman-Strub , G , Sheremetiev , S N , Siegwart Collier , L , Soudzilovskaia , N A , Trant , A , Venn , S E & Virkkala , A M 2023 , ' Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome ' , Nature Communications , vol. 14 , no. 1 , 3837 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 |
op_relation |
https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/347331d1-f7e7-4cee-8359-da335b552c32 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1809946798695907328 |