Synchronization and interdependence between the cycles of Colombia's hydroclimatology and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

• Published in: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Main Author: Salas Parra, Hernán Darío
• Other Authors: Poveda Jaramillo, Germán, Mesa Sánchez, Óscar José, Posgrado en Aprovechamiento de recursos hidráulicos
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Universidad Nacional de Colombia 2020
• Subjects: 620 - Ingeniería y operaciones afines::627 - Ingeniería hidráulica; Hydrology; Climatology; Flow rates; El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Hidrología; Climatología; Fenómeno del niño; El Niño - Oscilación del Sur; Caudales; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/78420; https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/

ilustraciones, mapas, tablas Hydroclimatology of Colombia is highly influenced by El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which conditions the hydrological response over Colombia, increasing (decreasing) rainfall and streamflows during La Niña (El Niño) depending on the location in the country. This dissertation presents an approach based on synchronization techniques to study the interdependence between ENSO and hydrological variables in Colombia. To that end, we use synchronization techniques such as Phase synchronization (PS) that is based on the physical properties of weakly coupled periodic oscillators, and Generalized Synchronization (GS) that is based on properties of recurrence of non-linear dynamical systems. Furthermore, we quantify interannual hydroclimatic anomalies (HyAns) using diverse methods to evaluate the sensitivity of linear and non-linear interdependence quantifiers. Our main findings reveal that: (1) we need of quantifying the uncertainty of HyAns in terms of magnitude, sign, timing, and phases of ENSO, because HyAns methods induce an important error source and bias on the interdependence analysis and modeling of climate time series; (2) We find that the positive (negative) HyAns experienced in the Pacific, the Caribbean and the Andean regions of Colombia, during La Niña (El Niño), are phase-locked with the ENSO. Moreover, we provide evidence that the ENSO signal is phase-locked with the annual cycle of rainfall in some regions of Colombia. Furthermore, other macro-climatic processes also show significant PS such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); (3) The Caribbean, the CHOCO, and the Orinoco Low-Level Jets (LLJs), and the Cross-Equatorial Flow (CEF) constitute an interdependence mechanism and contribute to explaining hydrological anomalies in Colombia during the phases of ENSO. During La Niña (El Niño), GS is strong (weak) for the Caribbean and the CHOCO LLJs whereas GS is moderate (strong) for the Orinoco LLJ. Moreover, moisture advection by the ...