Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics
Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub] arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitude...
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Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap
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Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-65116 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 |
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ftumeauniv:oai:DiVA.org:umu-65116 2023-10-09T21:48:13+02:00 Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics Hof, Anouschka R. Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer 2012 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-65116 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 eng eng Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap Public Library Science PLOS ONE, 2012, 7:12, s. e52574- http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-65116 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 ISI:000312794500202 Scopus 2-s2.0-84871434042 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Ecology Ekologi Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2012 ftumeauniv https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 2023-09-22T13:58:45Z Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub] arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub) arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub) arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Subarctic Tundra Umeå University: Publications (DiVA) Arctic PLoS ONE 7 12 e52574 |
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Open Polar |
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Umeå University: Publications (DiVA) |
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ftumeauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Ekologi |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Ekologi Hof, Anouschka R. Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
topic_facet |
Ecology Ekologi |
description |
Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub] arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub) arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub) arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hof, Anouschka R. Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer |
author_facet |
Hof, Anouschka R. Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer |
author_sort |
Hof, Anouschka R. |
title |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_short |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_full |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_fullStr |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics |
title_sort |
future climate change will favour non-specialist mammals in the (sub)arctics |
publisher |
Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-65116 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic Tundra |
op_relation |
PLOS ONE, 2012, 7:12, s. e52574- http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-65116 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 ISI:000312794500202 Scopus 2-s2.0-84871434042 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052574 |
container_title |
PLoS ONE |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
e52574 |
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