Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north
Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifi...
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Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap
2015
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ftumeauniv:oai:DiVA.org:umu-111169 2023-10-09T21:50:11+02:00 Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Keskitalo, E Carina H Vlasova, Tatiana Sutinen, Marja-Liisa Moen, Jon Chapin, F Stuart, III Bråthen, Kari Anne Cabeza, Mar Callaghan, Terry V van Oort, Bob Dannevig, Halvor Bay-larsen, Ingrid A Ims, Rolf A Aspholm, Paul Eric 2015 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-111169 https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 eng eng Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap Umeå universitet, Institutionen för geografi och ekonomisk historia Resilience Alliance Ecology & Society, 2015, 20:3, http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-111169 doi:10.5751/ES-07607-200332 ISI:000362913100012 Scopus 2-s2.0-84943142925 Local 881251 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Barents Region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor creation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap Ecology Ekologi Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2015 ftumeauniv https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 2023-09-22T13:59:16Z Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues. Article in Journal/Newspaper barents region reindeer husbandry Umeå University: Publications (DiVA) Ecology and Society 20 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Umeå University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftumeauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Barents Region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor creation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap Ecology Ekologi |
spellingShingle |
Barents Region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor creation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap Ecology Ekologi Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Keskitalo, E Carina H Vlasova, Tatiana Sutinen, Marja-Liisa Moen, Jon Chapin, F Stuart, III Bråthen, Kari Anne Cabeza, Mar Callaghan, Terry V van Oort, Bob Dannevig, Halvor Bay-larsen, Ingrid A Ims, Rolf A Aspholm, Paul Eric Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north |
topic_facet |
Barents Region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor creation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap Ecology Ekologi |
description |
Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Keskitalo, E Carina H Vlasova, Tatiana Sutinen, Marja-Liisa Moen, Jon Chapin, F Stuart, III Bråthen, Kari Anne Cabeza, Mar Callaghan, Terry V van Oort, Bob Dannevig, Halvor Bay-larsen, Ingrid A Ims, Rolf A Aspholm, Paul Eric |
author_facet |
Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Keskitalo, E Carina H Vlasova, Tatiana Sutinen, Marja-Liisa Moen, Jon Chapin, F Stuart, III Bråthen, Kari Anne Cabeza, Mar Callaghan, Terry V van Oort, Bob Dannevig, Halvor Bay-larsen, Ingrid A Ims, Rolf A Aspholm, Paul Eric |
author_sort |
Jansson, Roland |
title |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north |
title_short |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north |
title_full |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north |
title_sort |
future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the european north |
publisher |
Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-111169 https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 |
genre |
barents region reindeer husbandry |
genre_facet |
barents region reindeer husbandry |
op_relation |
Ecology & Society, 2015, 20:3, http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-111169 doi:10.5751/ES-07607-200332 ISI:000362913100012 Scopus 2-s2.0-84943142925 Local 881251 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 |
container_title |
Ecology and Society |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1779313247942344704 |