Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges
Lake-/sea-effect snow forms typically from late fall to winter when a cold air mass moves over the warmer, large water surface. The resulting intense snowfall has many societal impacts on communities living in downwind areas; hence, accurate forecasts of lake-/sea-effect snow are essential for safet...
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John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
2022
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/173102 https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1594 |
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ftumdeepblue:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/173102 |
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University of Michigan: Deep Blue |
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ftumdeepblue |
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unknown |
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lake-effect snow sea-effect snow weather forecast numerical model extreme weather Environment and Sustainability Science |
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lake-effect snow sea-effect snow weather forecast numerical model extreme weather Environment and Sustainability Science Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi Wright, David M. Mann, Greg E. Anderson, Eric J. Chu, Philip Jablonowski, Christiane Benjamin, Stanley G. Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges |
| topic_facet |
lake-effect snow sea-effect snow weather forecast numerical model extreme weather Environment and Sustainability Science |
| description |
Lake-/sea-effect snow forms typically from late fall to winter when a cold air mass moves over the warmer, large water surface. The resulting intense snowfall has many societal impacts on communities living in downwind areas; hence, accurate forecasts of lake-/sea-effect snow are essential for safety and preparedness. Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snow is extremely challenging, but over the past decades the advancement of numerical forecast models and the expansion of observational networks have incrementally improved the forecasting capability. The recent advancement includes numerical forecast models with high spatiotemporal resolutions that allow simulating vigorous snowstorms at the kilometer-scale and the frequent inclusion of radar observations in the model. This combination of more accurate weather prediction models as well as ground-based and remotely sensed observations has aided operational forecasters to make better lake-/sea-effect snow forecasts. A remaining challenge is that many observations of precipitation, surface meteorology, evaporation, and heat supply from the water surface are still limited to being land-based and the information over the water, particularly offshore, remains a gap. This primer overviews the basic mechanisms for lake-/sea-effect snow formation, evolution of forecast techniques, and challenges to be addressed in the future.This article is categorized under:Science of Water > Water ExtremesScience of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeScience of Water > MethodsSatellite image from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer over the North American Great Lakes region on January 27, 2019. Widespread, wind-parallel snow bands formed over Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. Shoreline bands were found over Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Peer Reviewed http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/173102/1/wat21594.pdf http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/173102/2/wat21594_am.pdf |
| format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| author |
Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi Wright, David M. Mann, Greg E. Anderson, Eric J. Chu, Philip Jablonowski, Christiane Benjamin, Stanley G. |
| author_facet |
Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi Wright, David M. Mann, Greg E. Anderson, Eric J. Chu, Philip Jablonowski, Christiane Benjamin, Stanley G. |
| author_sort |
Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi |
| title |
Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges |
| title_short |
Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges |
| title_full |
Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges |
| title_fullStr |
Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges |
| title_sort |
forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges |
| publisher |
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| url |
https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/173102 https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1594 |
| genre |
Arctic |
| genre_facet |
Arctic |
| op_relation |
Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi Wright, David M.; Mann, Greg E.; Anderson, Eric J.; Chu, Philip; Jablonowski, Christiane; Benjamin, Stanley G. (2022). "Forecasting lake- /sea- effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water 9(4): n/a-n/a. 2049-1948 https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/173102 doi:10.1002/wat2.1594 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water Niziol, T. A., Snyder, W. R., & Waldstreicher, J. S. ( 1995 ). Winter weather forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part IV: Lake effect snow. Weather and Forecasting, 10 ( 1 ), 61 – 77. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0061:WWFTTE>2.0.CO;2 Nuclear Energy Institute. ( 2018, October 10). History of U.S. nuclear plants’ responses to unusual natural events. Fact Sheet, Emergency Preparedness. https://www.nei.org/resources/fact-sheets/history-us-nuclear-plants-response-events Olsson, T., Luomaranta, A., Jylhä, K., Jeworrek, J., Perttula, T., Dieterich, C., Wu, L., Rutgersson, A., & Mäkelä, A. ( 2020 ). Statistics of sea-effect snowfall along the Finnish coastline based on regional climate model data. Advances in Science and Research, 17, 87 – 104. https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-87-2020 Olsson, T., Post, P., Rannat, K., Keernik, H., Perttula, T., Luomaranta, A., Jylha, K., Kivi, R., & Voormansik, T. ( 2018 ). Sea-effect snowfall case in the Baltic Sea region analysed by reanalysis, remote sensing data and convection-permitting mesoscale modelling. Geophysia, 51 ( 1 ), 65 – 91. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329681677 Peace, R. L., & Sykes, R. B. ( 1966 ). Mesoscale study of a Lake effect snow storm. Monthly Weather Review, 94 ( 8 ), 495 – 507. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1966)094<0495:MSOALE>2.3.CO;2 Rodriguez, Y., Kristovich, D. A. R., & Hjelmfelft, M. R. ( 2007 ). Lake-to-lake cloud bands: Frequencies and locations. Monthly Weather Review, 135 ( 12 ), 4202 – 4213. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1960.1 Rothrock, H. J. ( 1969 ). An aid in forecasting significant lake snows. Technical Memorandum. ESSA technical memorandum WBTM CR; 30 Kansas City, Mo.U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Environmental Science Services Administration, Weather Bureau, Central Region, 1969, 1–12. Rutgersson, A., Kjellström, E., Haapala, J., Stendel, M., Danilovich, I., Drews, M., Jylhä, K., Kujala, P., Guo Larsén, X., Halsnæs, K., Lehtonen, I., Luomaranta, A., Nilsson, E., Olsson, T., Särkkä, J., Tuomi, L., & Wasmund, N. ( 2022 ). Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region. In Earth System Dynamics, (Vol. 13, pp. 251 – 301 ). Copernicus GmbH. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022 Sasai, T., Kawase, H., Kanno, Y., Yamaguchi, J., Sugimoto, S., Yamazaki, T., Sasaki, H., Fujita, M., & Iwasaki, T. ( 2019 ). Future projection of extreme heavy snowfall events with a 5-km large ensemble regional climate simulation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124 ( 24 ), 13975 – 13990. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030781 Sharma, S., Blagrave, K., Magnuson, J. J., O’Reilly, C. M., Oliver, S., Batt, R. D., Magee, M. R., Straile, D., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Winslow, L., & Woolway, R. I. ( 2019 ). Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world. Nature Climate Change, 9 ( 3 ), 227 – 231. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0393-5 Sousounis, P. J., & Mann, G. E. ( 2000 ). Lake-aggregate mesoscale disturbances. Part V: Impacts on lake-effect precipitation. Monthly Weather Review, 128, 728 – 745. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0728:LAMDPV>2.0.CO;2 Spence, C., Blanken, P. D., Hedstrom, N., Fortin, V., & Wilson, H. ( 2011 ). Evaporation from Lake Superior: 2. Spatial distribution and variability. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 37 ( 4 ), 717 – 724. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2011.08.013 Steenburgh, W. J., Halvorson, S. F., & Onton, D. J. ( 2000 ). Climatology of lake-effect snowstorms of the Great Salt Lake. Monthly Weather Review, 128, 709 – 727. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0709:COLESO>2.0.CO;2 Steenburgh, W. J., & Nakai, S. ( 2020 ). Perspectives on sea- And lake-effect precipitation from Japan’s “Gosetsu chitai.” Perspectives on Sea- and Lake-Effect Precipitation from Japan’s ‘Gosetsu Chitai ’. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101 ( 1 ), E58 – E72. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0335.1 Steiger, S. M., Schrom, R., Stamm, A., Ruth, D., Jaszka, K., Kress, T., Rathbun, B., Frame, J., Wurman, J., & Kosiba, K. ( 2013 ). Circulations, bounded weak echo regions, and horizontal vortices observed within long-lake-axis-parallel-Lake-effect storms by the Doppler on wheels. Monthly Weather Review, 141, 2821 – 2840. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00226.s1 Valdez Banda, O. A., Goerlandt, F., Montewka, J., & Kujala, P. ( 2014 ). Winter navigation at the Baltic Sea: An analysis of accidents occurred during winters 2002–2003 & 2009–2013. T. Nowakowski, M. Mlynczak, A. Jodejko-Pietruczuk & S. Werbinska-Wojciechowska, (Eds). Safety and reliability: Methodology and applications, (pp. 119 – 128 ). Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1201/b17399-14 Veals, P. G., & James Steenburgh, W. ( 2015 ). Climatological characteristics and orographic enhancement of lake-effect precipitation east of Lake Ontario and over the Tug Hill Plateau. Monthly Weather Review, 143 ( 9 ), 3591 – 3609. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0009.1 Veals, P. G., Steenburgh, W. J., & Campbell, L. S. ( 2018 ). Factors affecting the inland and orographic enhancement of lake-effect precipitation over the Tug Hill Plateau. Monthly Weather Review, 146 ( 6 ), 1745 – 1762. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0385.1 Wiggin, B. L. ( 1950 ). Great snows of the Great Lakes. Weatherwise, 3 ( 6 ), 123 – 126. https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.1950.9927065 Wright, D. M., Posselt, D. J., & Steiner, A. L. ( 2013 ). Sensitivity of lake-effect snowfall to lake ice cover and temperature in the Great Lakes region. Monthly Weather Review, 141 ( 2 ), 670 – 689. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00038.1 Xiao, C., Lofgren, B. M., Wang, J., & Chu, P. Y. ( 2016 ). Improving the lake scheme within a coupled WRF-lake model in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8, 1969 – 1985. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000717 Yamada, Y. ( 2005 ). Relationship between orientation of snow bands and mean wind direction/vertical wind shear in mixed layer. Study of precipitation mechanisms in snow clouds over the sea of Japan and feasibility of their modification by seeding. 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L., & Gomes, H. B. ( 2021 ). Climatological conditions of the Black Sea-effect snowfall events in Istanbul, Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 41 ( 3 ), 2017 – 2028. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6944 Bao, B., & Ren, G. ( 2018 ). Sea-effect precipitation over the Shandong Peninsula, northern China. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57 ( 6 ), 1291 – 1308. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0200.1 Benjamin, S. G., Weygandt, S. S., Brown, J. M., Hu, M., Alexander, C., Smirnova, T. G., Olson, J. B., James, E., Dowell, D. C., Grell, G. A., Lin, H., Peckham, S. E., Smith, T. L., Moninger, W. R., Kenyon, J., & Manikin, G. S. ( 2016 ). A North American hourly assimilation and model forecast cycle: The rapid refresh. Monthly Weather Review, 144 ( 4 ), 1669 – 1694. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0242.1 Blanken, P. D., Spence, C., Hedstrom, N., & Lenters, J. D. ( 2011 ). Evaporation from Lake Superior: 1. Physical controls and processes. 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ftumdeepblue:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/173102 2023-08-27T04:06:50+02:00 Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi Wright, David M. Mann, Greg E. Anderson, Eric J. Chu, Philip Jablonowski, Christiane Benjamin, Stanley G. 2022-07 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/173102 https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1594 unknown John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi Wright, David M.; Mann, Greg E.; Anderson, Eric J.; Chu, Philip; Jablonowski, Christiane; Benjamin, Stanley G. (2022). "Forecasting lake- /sea- effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water 9(4): n/a-n/a. 2049-1948 https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/173102 doi:10.1002/wat2.1594 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water Niziol, T. A., Snyder, W. R., & Waldstreicher, J. S. ( 1995 ). Winter weather forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part IV: Lake effect snow. Weather and Forecasting, 10 ( 1 ), 61 – 77. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0061:WWFTTE>2.0.CO;2 Nuclear Energy Institute. ( 2018, October 10). History of U.S. nuclear plants’ responses to unusual natural events. Fact Sheet, Emergency Preparedness. https://www.nei.org/resources/fact-sheets/history-us-nuclear-plants-response-events Olsson, T., Luomaranta, A., Jylhä, K., Jeworrek, J., Perttula, T., Dieterich, C., Wu, L., Rutgersson, A., & Mäkelä, A. ( 2020 ). Statistics of sea-effect snowfall along the Finnish coastline based on regional climate model data. Advances in Science and Research, 17, 87 – 104. https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-87-2020 Olsson, T., Post, P., Rannat, K., Keernik, H., Perttula, T., Luomaranta, A., Jylha, K., Kivi, R., & Voormansik, T. ( 2018 ). Sea-effect snowfall case in the Baltic Sea region analysed by reanalysis, remote sensing data and convection-permitting mesoscale modelling. Geophysia, 51 ( 1 ), 65 – 91. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329681677 Peace, R. L., & Sykes, R. B. ( 1966 ). Mesoscale study of a Lake effect snow storm. Monthly Weather Review, 94 ( 8 ), 495 – 507. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1966)094<0495:MSOALE>2.3.CO;2 Rodriguez, Y., Kristovich, D. A. R., & Hjelmfelft, M. R. ( 2007 ). Lake-to-lake cloud bands: Frequencies and locations. Monthly Weather Review, 135 ( 12 ), 4202 – 4213. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1960.1 Rothrock, H. J. ( 1969 ). An aid in forecasting significant lake snows. Technical Memorandum. ESSA technical memorandum WBTM CR; 30 Kansas City, Mo.U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Environmental Science Services Administration, Weather Bureau, Central Region, 1969, 1–12. Rutgersson, A., Kjellström, E., Haapala, J., Stendel, M., Danilovich, I., Drews, M., Jylhä, K., Kujala, P., Guo Larsén, X., Halsnæs, K., Lehtonen, I., Luomaranta, A., Nilsson, E., Olsson, T., Särkkä, J., Tuomi, L., & Wasmund, N. ( 2022 ). Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region. In Earth System Dynamics, (Vol. 13, pp. 251 – 301 ). Copernicus GmbH. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022 Sasai, T., Kawase, H., Kanno, Y., Yamaguchi, J., Sugimoto, S., Yamazaki, T., Sasaki, H., Fujita, M., & Iwasaki, T. ( 2019 ). Future projection of extreme heavy snowfall events with a 5-km large ensemble regional climate simulation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124 ( 24 ), 13975 – 13990. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030781 Sharma, S., Blagrave, K., Magnuson, J. J., O’Reilly, C. M., Oliver, S., Batt, R. D., Magee, M. R., Straile, D., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Winslow, L., & Woolway, R. I. ( 2019 ). Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world. Nature Climate Change, 9 ( 3 ), 227 – 231. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0393-5 Sousounis, P. J., & Mann, G. E. ( 2000 ). Lake-aggregate mesoscale disturbances. Part V: Impacts on lake-effect precipitation. Monthly Weather Review, 128, 728 – 745. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0728:LAMDPV>2.0.CO;2 Spence, C., Blanken, P. D., Hedstrom, N., Fortin, V., & Wilson, H. ( 2011 ). Evaporation from Lake Superior: 2. Spatial distribution and variability. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 37 ( 4 ), 717 – 724. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2011.08.013 Steenburgh, W. J., Halvorson, S. F., & Onton, D. J. ( 2000 ). Climatology of lake-effect snowstorms of the Great Salt Lake. Monthly Weather Review, 128, 709 – 727. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0709:COLESO>2.0.CO;2 Steenburgh, W. J., & Nakai, S. ( 2020 ). Perspectives on sea- And lake-effect precipitation from Japan’s “Gosetsu chitai.” Perspectives on Sea- and Lake-Effect Precipitation from Japan’s ‘Gosetsu Chitai ’. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101 ( 1 ), E58 – E72. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0335.1 Steiger, S. M., Schrom, R., Stamm, A., Ruth, D., Jaszka, K., Kress, T., Rathbun, B., Frame, J., Wurman, J., & Kosiba, K. ( 2013 ). Circulations, bounded weak echo regions, and horizontal vortices observed within long-lake-axis-parallel-Lake-effect storms by the Doppler on wheels. Monthly Weather Review, 141, 2821 – 2840. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00226.s1 Valdez Banda, O. A., Goerlandt, F., Montewka, J., & Kujala, P. ( 2014 ). Winter navigation at the Baltic Sea: An analysis of accidents occurred during winters 2002–2003 & 2009–2013. T. Nowakowski, M. Mlynczak, A. Jodejko-Pietruczuk & S. Werbinska-Wojciechowska, (Eds). Safety and reliability: Methodology and applications, (pp. 119 – 128 ). Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1201/b17399-14 Veals, P. G., & James Steenburgh, W. ( 2015 ). Climatological characteristics and orographic enhancement of lake-effect precipitation east of Lake Ontario and over the Tug Hill Plateau. Monthly Weather Review, 143 ( 9 ), 3591 – 3609. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0009.1 Veals, P. G., Steenburgh, W. J., & Campbell, L. S. ( 2018 ). Factors affecting the inland and orographic enhancement of lake-effect precipitation over the Tug Hill Plateau. Monthly Weather Review, 146 ( 6 ), 1745 – 1762. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0385.1 Wiggin, B. L. ( 1950 ). Great snows of the Great Lakes. Weatherwise, 3 ( 6 ), 123 – 126. https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.1950.9927065 Wright, D. M., Posselt, D. J., & Steiner, A. L. ( 2013 ). Sensitivity of lake-effect snowfall to lake ice cover and temperature in the Great Lakes region. Monthly Weather Review, 141 ( 2 ), 670 – 689. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00038.1 Xiao, C., Lofgren, B. M., Wang, J., & Chu, P. Y. ( 2016 ). Improving the lake scheme within a coupled WRF-lake model in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8, 1969 – 1985. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000717 Yamada, Y. ( 2005 ). Relationship between orientation of snow bands and mean wind direction/vertical wind shear in mixed layer. Study of precipitation mechanisms in snow clouds over the sea of Japan and feasibility of their modification by seeding. Technical Reports of The Meteorological Research Institute, 48 (Section 5, 59 – 65, in Japanese. https://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Publish/Technical/DATA/VOL_48/48.pdf Yamada, Y., Murakami, M., Mizuno, H., Maki, M., Nakai, S., & Iwanami, K. ( 2010 ). Kinematic and thermodynamical structures of longitudinal-mode snow bands over the Sea of Japan during cold-air outbreaks part I: Snow bands in large vertical shear environment in the band-transverse direction. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 88 ( 4 ), 673 – 718. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2010-404 Yagi, S. ( 1985 ). Large scale snow clouds with roll axes roughly perpendicular to the direction of winter monsoon burst: Observational studies of convective cloud roll axes and some theoretical consideration. 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The resulting intense snowfall has many societal impacts on communities living in downwind areas; hence, accurate forecasts of lake-/sea-effect snow are essential for safety and preparedness. Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snow is extremely challenging, but over the past decades the advancement of numerical forecast models and the expansion of observational networks have incrementally improved the forecasting capability. The recent advancement includes numerical forecast models with high spatiotemporal resolutions that allow simulating vigorous snowstorms at the kilometer-scale and the frequent inclusion of radar observations in the model. This combination of more accurate weather prediction models as well as ground-based and remotely sensed observations has aided operational forecasters to make better lake-/sea-effect snow forecasts. A remaining challenge is that many observations of precipitation, surface meteorology, evaporation, and heat supply from the water surface are still limited to being land-based and the information over the water, particularly offshore, remains a gap. This primer overviews the basic mechanisms for lake-/sea-effect snow formation, evolution of forecast techniques, and challenges to be addressed in the future.This article is categorized under:Science of Water > Water ExtremesScience of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeScience of Water > MethodsSatellite image from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer over the North American Great Lakes region on January 27, 2019. Widespread, wind-parallel snow bands formed over Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. Shoreline bands were found over Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Peer Reviewed http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/173102/1/wat21594.pdf http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/173102/2/wat21594_am.pdf Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic University of Michigan: Deep Blue |