Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths
Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to popul...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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2014
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/106856 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12529 |
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ftumdeepblue:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/106856 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Michigan: Deep Blue |
op_collection_id |
ftumdeepblue |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Moth Declines Biodiversity Climate Change Forest Insects Lepidoptera Life‐History Traits Time‐Series Analysis Geology and Earth Sciences Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Science |
spellingShingle |
Moth Declines Biodiversity Climate Change Forest Insects Lepidoptera Life‐History Traits Time‐Series Analysis Geology and Earth Sciences Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Science Hunter, Mark D. Kozlov, Mikhail V. Itämies, Juhani Pulliainen, Erkki Bäck, Jaana Kyrö, Ella‐maria Niemelä, Pekka Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths |
topic_facet |
Moth Declines Biodiversity Climate Change Forest Insects Lepidoptera Life‐History Traits Time‐Series Analysis Geology and Earth Sciences Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Science |
description |
Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time‐series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life‐history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time‐series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hunter, Mark D. Kozlov, Mikhail V. Itämies, Juhani Pulliainen, Erkki Bäck, Jaana Kyrö, Ella‐maria Niemelä, Pekka |
author_facet |
Hunter, Mark D. Kozlov, Mikhail V. Itämies, Juhani Pulliainen, Erkki Bäck, Jaana Kyrö, Ella‐maria Niemelä, Pekka |
author_sort |
Hunter, Mark D. |
title |
Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths |
title_short |
Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths |
title_full |
Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths |
title_fullStr |
Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths |
title_full_unstemmed |
Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths |
title_sort |
current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths |
publisher |
Intercept |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/106856 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12529 |
genre |
Subarctic Lapland |
genre_facet |
Subarctic Lapland |
op_relation |
Hunter, Mark D.; Kozlov, Mikhail V.; Itämies, Juhani Pulliainen, Erkki; Bäck, Jaana Kyrö, Ella‐maria Niemelä, Pekka (2014). "Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths." Global Change Biology 20(6): 1723-1737. 1354-1013 1365-2486 http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/106856 doi:10.1111/gcb.12529 Global Change Biology Royama T ( 1992 ) Analytical Population Dynamics. Springer, New York. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, Linden PJVD, Hanson CE (eds.) ( 2007 ) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Pateman RM, Hill JK, Roy DB, Fox R, Thomas CD ( 2012 ) Temperature‐dependent alterations in host use drive rapid range expansion in a butterfly. Science, 336, 1028 – 1030. Pollard E, Lakhani KH, Rothery P ( 1987 ) The detection of density dependence from a series of annual censuses. Ecology, 68, 2046 – 2055. Price PW, Hunter MD ( 2005 ) Long‐term population dynamics of a sawfly show strong bottom‐up effects. Journal of Animal Ecology, 74, 917 – 925. Pulliainen E, Itämies J ( 1988 ) Xestia communities (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in eastern Finnish Forest Lapland as indicated by light trap sampling. Holarctic Ecology, 11, 235 – 240. Redfern M, Hunter MD ( 2005 ) Time tells: long‐term patterns in the population dynamics of the yew gall midge, Taxomyia taxi (Cecidomyiidae), over 35 years. Ecological Entomology, 30, 86 – 95. Roland J, Matter SF ( 2012 ) Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly. Ecology, 94, 190 – 199. Salama NKG, Knowler JT, Adams CE ( 2007 ) Increasing abundance and diversity in the moth assemblage of east Loch Lomondside, Scotland over a 35 year period. Journal of Insect Conservation, 11, 151 – 156. Sibly RM, Hone J ( 2002 ) Population growth rate and its determinants: an overview. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B‐Biological Sciences, 357, 1153 – 1170. Slade EM, Merckx T, Riutta T, Bebber DP, Redhead D, Riordan P, Macdonald DW ( 2013 ) Life‐history traits and landscape characteristics predict macro‐moth responses to forest fragmentation. Ecology, 94, 1519 – 1530. Speight MR, Hunter MD, Watt AD ( 2008 ) The Ecology of Insects: Concepts and Applications. Wiley‐Blackwell, Oxford. Stefanescu C, Torre I, Jubany J, Paramo F ( 2011 ) Recent trends in butterfly populations from north‐east Spain and Andorra in the light of habitat and climate change. Journal of Insect Conservation, 15, 83 – 93. Stireman JO, Dyer LA, Janzen DH et al. ( 2005 ) Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: implications of global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 17384 – 17387. Sullivan MS, Gilbert F, Rotheray G, Croasdale S, Jones M ( 2000 ) Comparative analyses of correlates of Red data book status: a case study using European hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae). Animal Conservation, 3, 91 – 95. Suominen O, Niemelä J, Martikainen P, Niemelä P, Kojola I ( 2003 ) Impact of reindeer grazing on ground‐dwelling Carabidae and Curculionidae assemblages in Lapland. Ecography, 26, 503 – 513. Thomas JA ( 2005 ) Monitoring change in the abundance and distribution of insects using butterflies and other indicator groups. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B‐Biological Sciences, 360, 339 – 357. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE et al. ( 2004a ) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145 – 148. Thomas JA, Telfer MG, Roy DB et al. ( 2004b ) Comparative losses of British butterflies, birds, and plants and the global extinction crisis. Science, 303, 1879 – 1881. Tylianakis JM ( 2013 ) The global plight of pollinators. Science, 339, 1532 – 1533. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P et al. ( 2002 ) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389 – 395. Warren MS, Hill JK, Thomas JA et al. ( 2001 ) Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature, 414, 65 – 69. White TCR ( 2008 ) The role of food, weather and climate in limiting the abundance of animals. Biological Reviews, 83, 227 – 248. Wilson EO ( 1987 ) The little things that run the world (the importance and conservation of invertebrates). Conservation Biology, 1, 344 – 346. Wilson RJ, Maclean IMD ( 2011 ) Recent evidence for the climate change threat to Lepidoptera and other insects. Journal of Insect Conservation, 15, 259 – 268. Woiwod IP ( 1997 ) Detecting the effects of climate change on Lepidoptera. Journal of Insect Conservation, 1, 149 – 158. Woiwod IP, Gould PJL ( 2008 ) Long‐term moth studies at Rothamsted. In: The Moths of Hertfordshire (ed. Plant CW ), pp. 31 – 44. Hertfordshire Natural History Society, Welwyn Garden City, UK. Xu L, Myneni RB, Chapin FS et al. ( 2013 ) Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands. Nature Climate Change, 3, 581 – 586. Yan C, Stenseth NC, Krebs CJ, Zhang Z ( 2013 ) Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx. Global Change Biology, 19, 3263 – 3271. Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID et al. ( 2002 ) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change Biology, 8, 1 – 16. Ball BA, Hunter MD, Kominoski JS, Swan CM, Bradford MA ( 2008 ) Consequences of non‐random species loss for decomposition dynamics: experimental evidence for additive and non‐additive effects. Journal of Ecology, 96, 303 – 313. Benton TG, Plaistow SJ, Coulson TN ( 2006 ) Complex population dynamics and complex causation: devils, details and demography. Proceedings of the Royal Society B‐Biological Sciences, 273, 1173 – 1181. Bishop JG ( 2002 ) Early primary succession on Mount St. Helens: impact of insect herbivores on colonizing lupines. Ecology, 83, 191 – 202. Boggs CL, Inouye DW ( 2012 ) A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on insect population dynamics. Ecology Letters, 15, 502 – 508. Brook BW, Sodhi NS, Bradshaw CJA ( 2008 ) Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 23, 453 – 460. Brower LP, Taylor OR, Williams EH, Slayback DA, Zubieta RR, Ramirez MI ( 2012 ) Decline of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico: is the migratory phenomenon at risk? Insect Conservation and Diversity, 5, 95 – 100. Cardinale BJ, Srivastava DS, Duffy JE, Wright JP, Downing AL, Sankaran M, Jouseau C ( 2006 ) Effects of biodiversity on the functioning of trophic groups and ecosystems. Nature, 443, 989 – 992. Conrad KF, Woiwod IP, Parsons M, Fox R, Warren MS ( 2004 ) Long‐term population trends in widespread British moths. Journal of Insect Conservation, 8, 119 – 136. Conrad KF, Warren MS, Fox R, Parsons MS, Woiwod IP ( 2006 ) Rapid declines of common, widespread British moths provide evidence of an insect biodiversity crisis. Biological Conservation, 132, 279 – 291. Cornulier T, Yoccoz NG, Bretagnolle V et al. ( 2013 ) Europe‐wide dampening of population cycles in keystone herbivores. Science, 340, 63 – 66. Den Herder M, Kytoviita MM, Niemelä P ( 2003 ) Growth of reindeer lichens and effects of reindeer grazing on ground cover vegetation in a Scots pine forest and a subarctic heathland in Finnish Lapland. Ecography, 26, 3 – 12. |
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ftumdeepblue:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/106856 2023-08-20T04:10:02+02:00 Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths Hunter, Mark D. Kozlov, Mikhail V. Itämies, Juhani Pulliainen, Erkki Bäck, Jaana Kyrö, Ella‐maria Niemelä, Pekka 2014-06 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/106856 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12529 unknown Intercept Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Hunter, Mark D.; Kozlov, Mikhail V.; Itämies, Juhani Pulliainen, Erkki; Bäck, Jaana Kyrö, Ella‐maria Niemelä, Pekka (2014). "Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths." Global Change Biology 20(6): 1723-1737. 1354-1013 1365-2486 http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/106856 doi:10.1111/gcb.12529 Global Change Biology Royama T ( 1992 ) Analytical Population Dynamics. Springer, New York. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, Linden PJVD, Hanson CE (eds.) ( 2007 ) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Pateman RM, Hill JK, Roy DB, Fox R, Thomas CD ( 2012 ) Temperature‐dependent alterations in host use drive rapid range expansion in a butterfly. Science, 336, 1028 – 1030. Pollard E, Lakhani KH, Rothery P ( 1987 ) The detection of density dependence from a series of annual censuses. Ecology, 68, 2046 – 2055. Price PW, Hunter MD ( 2005 ) Long‐term population dynamics of a sawfly show strong bottom‐up effects. Journal of Animal Ecology, 74, 917 – 925. Pulliainen E, Itämies J ( 1988 ) Xestia communities (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in eastern Finnish Forest Lapland as indicated by light trap sampling. Holarctic Ecology, 11, 235 – 240. Redfern M, Hunter MD ( 2005 ) Time tells: long‐term patterns in the population dynamics of the yew gall midge, Taxomyia taxi (Cecidomyiidae), over 35 years. Ecological Entomology, 30, 86 – 95. Roland J, Matter SF ( 2012 ) Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly. Ecology, 94, 190 – 199. Salama NKG, Knowler JT, Adams CE ( 2007 ) Increasing abundance and diversity in the moth assemblage of east Loch Lomondside, Scotland over a 35 year period. Journal of Insect Conservation, 11, 151 – 156. Sibly RM, Hone J ( 2002 ) Population growth rate and its determinants: an overview. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B‐Biological Sciences, 357, 1153 – 1170. Slade EM, Merckx T, Riutta T, Bebber DP, Redhead D, Riordan P, Macdonald DW ( 2013 ) Life‐history traits and landscape characteristics predict macro‐moth responses to forest fragmentation. Ecology, 94, 1519 – 1530. Speight MR, Hunter MD, Watt AD ( 2008 ) The Ecology of Insects: Concepts and Applications. Wiley‐Blackwell, Oxford. Stefanescu C, Torre I, Jubany J, Paramo F ( 2011 ) Recent trends in butterfly populations from north‐east Spain and Andorra in the light of habitat and climate change. Journal of Insect Conservation, 15, 83 – 93. Stireman JO, Dyer LA, Janzen DH et al. ( 2005 ) Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: implications of global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 17384 – 17387. Sullivan MS, Gilbert F, Rotheray G, Croasdale S, Jones M ( 2000 ) Comparative analyses of correlates of Red data book status: a case study using European hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae). Animal Conservation, 3, 91 – 95. Suominen O, Niemelä J, Martikainen P, Niemelä P, Kojola I ( 2003 ) Impact of reindeer grazing on ground‐dwelling Carabidae and Curculionidae assemblages in Lapland. Ecography, 26, 503 – 513. Thomas JA ( 2005 ) Monitoring change in the abundance and distribution of insects using butterflies and other indicator groups. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B‐Biological Sciences, 360, 339 – 357. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE et al. ( 2004a ) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145 – 148. Thomas JA, Telfer MG, Roy DB et al. ( 2004b ) Comparative losses of British butterflies, birds, and plants and the global extinction crisis. Science, 303, 1879 – 1881. Tylianakis JM ( 2013 ) The global plight of pollinators. Science, 339, 1532 – 1533. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P et al. ( 2002 ) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389 – 395. Warren MS, Hill JK, Thomas JA et al. ( 2001 ) Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature, 414, 65 – 69. White TCR ( 2008 ) The role of food, weather and climate in limiting the abundance of animals. Biological Reviews, 83, 227 – 248. Wilson EO ( 1987 ) The little things that run the world (the importance and conservation of invertebrates). Conservation Biology, 1, 344 – 346. Wilson RJ, Maclean IMD ( 2011 ) Recent evidence for the climate change threat to Lepidoptera and other insects. Journal of Insect Conservation, 15, 259 – 268. Woiwod IP ( 1997 ) Detecting the effects of climate change on Lepidoptera. Journal of Insect Conservation, 1, 149 – 158. Woiwod IP, Gould PJL ( 2008 ) Long‐term moth studies at Rothamsted. In: The Moths of Hertfordshire (ed. Plant CW ), pp. 31 – 44. Hertfordshire Natural History Society, Welwyn Garden City, UK. Xu L, Myneni RB, Chapin FS et al. ( 2013 ) Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands. Nature Climate Change, 3, 581 – 586. Yan C, Stenseth NC, Krebs CJ, Zhang Z ( 2013 ) Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx. Global Change Biology, 19, 3263 – 3271. Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID et al. ( 2002 ) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change Biology, 8, 1 – 16. Ball BA, Hunter MD, Kominoski JS, Swan CM, Bradford MA ( 2008 ) Consequences of non‐random species loss for decomposition dynamics: experimental evidence for additive and non‐additive effects. Journal of Ecology, 96, 303 – 313. Benton TG, Plaistow SJ, Coulson TN ( 2006 ) Complex population dynamics and complex causation: devils, details and demography. Proceedings of the Royal Society B‐Biological Sciences, 273, 1173 – 1181. Bishop JG ( 2002 ) Early primary succession on Mount St. Helens: impact of insect herbivores on colonizing lupines. Ecology, 83, 191 – 202. Boggs CL, Inouye DW ( 2012 ) A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on insect population dynamics. Ecology Letters, 15, 502 – 508. Brook BW, Sodhi NS, Bradshaw CJA ( 2008 ) Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 23, 453 – 460. Brower LP, Taylor OR, Williams EH, Slayback DA, Zubieta RR, Ramirez MI ( 2012 ) Decline of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico: is the migratory phenomenon at risk? Insect Conservation and Diversity, 5, 95 – 100. Cardinale BJ, Srivastava DS, Duffy JE, Wright JP, Downing AL, Sankaran M, Jouseau C ( 2006 ) Effects of biodiversity on the functioning of trophic groups and ecosystems. Nature, 443, 989 – 992. Conrad KF, Woiwod IP, Parsons M, Fox R, Warren MS ( 2004 ) Long‐term population trends in widespread British moths. Journal of Insect Conservation, 8, 119 – 136. Conrad KF, Warren MS, Fox R, Parsons MS, Woiwod IP ( 2006 ) Rapid declines of common, widespread British moths provide evidence of an insect biodiversity crisis. Biological Conservation, 132, 279 – 291. Cornulier T, Yoccoz NG, Bretagnolle V et al. ( 2013 ) Europe‐wide dampening of population cycles in keystone herbivores. Science, 340, 63 – 66. Den Herder M, Kytoviita MM, Niemelä P ( 2003 ) Growth of reindeer lichens and effects of reindeer grazing on ground cover vegetation in a Scots pine forest and a subarctic heathland in Finnish Lapland. Ecography, 26, 3 – 12. IndexNoFollow Moth Declines Biodiversity Climate Change Forest Insects Lepidoptera Life‐History Traits Time‐Series Analysis Geology and Earth Sciences Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Science Article 2014 ftumdeepblue https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12529 2023-07-31T20:55:14Z Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time‐series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life‐history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time‐series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Subarctic Lapland University of Michigan: Deep Blue Global Change Biology 20 6 1723 1737 |