Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy
Annual balances of eight alpine glaciers were slightly negative for 1961–90 and highly negative for 1991–2018. We explain this by changes in positive degree-day sums and summer temperatures extrapolated to the median altitudes of the glaciers. We test a new way of calculating degree-day sums that pe...
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Online Access: | https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/ac8f5e7e-3671-48e6-9652-80a0e0e87ace https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.140 https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143021001404/type/journal_article |
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ftumanchesterpub:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/ac8f5e7e-3671-48e6-9652-80a0e0e87ace 2023-11-12T04:19:55+01:00 Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy Braithwaite, Roger J. Hughes, Philip D. 2022-01-31 https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/ac8f5e7e-3671-48e6-9652-80a0e0e87ace https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.140 https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143021001404/type/journal_article eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Braithwaite , R J & Hughes , P D 2022 , ' Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy ' , Journal of Glaciology , pp. 1-11 . https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.140 Climate change glacier mass balance glacier meteorology article 2022 ftumanchesterpub https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.140 2023-10-30T09:11:00Z Annual balances of eight alpine glaciers were slightly negative for 1961–90 and highly negative for 1991–2018. We explain this by changes in positive degree-day sums and summer temperatures extrapolated to the median altitudes of the glaciers. We test a new way of calculating degree-day sums that performs better than the traditional method which used daily mean temperatures. Annual degree-day sums are highly correlated with May–September temperatures as suggested in 1866 by Karl von Sonklar. We find moderate correlations between annual balances and degree-day sums, and with May–September temperatures. Calculated degree-day factors for the eight glaciers cover the reported range for snow and ice ablation, while the temperature sensitivity of annual balance is from −0.4 to −1.0 m w.e. for a +1°C temperature change. We accurately predict mean balances for 1991–2018 using May–September temperatures in regression models calibrated for 1961–90. May–September temperatures in the Alps have already increased ∼+3°C since 1880 and, if temperatures continue to rise, these glaciers will shrink rapidly. As annual balances are already negative for present-day temperatures, these glaciers will not be ‘safe’ under the further temperature increase permitted by the Paris Agreement. Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology The University of Manchester: Research Explorer Journal of Glaciology 1 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Manchester: Research Explorer |
op_collection_id |
ftumanchesterpub |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change glacier mass balance glacier meteorology |
spellingShingle |
Climate change glacier mass balance glacier meteorology Braithwaite, Roger J. Hughes, Philip D. Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy |
topic_facet |
Climate change glacier mass balance glacier meteorology |
description |
Annual balances of eight alpine glaciers were slightly negative for 1961–90 and highly negative for 1991–2018. We explain this by changes in positive degree-day sums and summer temperatures extrapolated to the median altitudes of the glaciers. We test a new way of calculating degree-day sums that performs better than the traditional method which used daily mean temperatures. Annual degree-day sums are highly correlated with May–September temperatures as suggested in 1866 by Karl von Sonklar. We find moderate correlations between annual balances and degree-day sums, and with May–September temperatures. Calculated degree-day factors for the eight glaciers cover the reported range for snow and ice ablation, while the temperature sensitivity of annual balance is from −0.4 to −1.0 m w.e. for a +1°C temperature change. We accurately predict mean balances for 1991–2018 using May–September temperatures in regression models calibrated for 1961–90. May–September temperatures in the Alps have already increased ∼+3°C since 1880 and, if temperatures continue to rise, these glaciers will shrink rapidly. As annual balances are already negative for present-day temperatures, these glaciers will not be ‘safe’ under the further temperature increase permitted by the Paris Agreement. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Braithwaite, Roger J. Hughes, Philip D. |
author_facet |
Braithwaite, Roger J. Hughes, Philip D. |
author_sort |
Braithwaite, Roger J. |
title |
Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy |
title_short |
Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy |
title_full |
Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy |
title_fullStr |
Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy |
title_sort |
positive degree-day sums in the alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/ac8f5e7e-3671-48e6-9652-80a0e0e87ace https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.140 https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143021001404/type/journal_article |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Braithwaite , R J & Hughes , P D 2022 , ' Positive degree-day sums in the Alps: a direct link between glacier melt and international climate policy ' , Journal of Glaciology , pp. 1-11 . https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.140 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.140 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
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1 |
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11 |
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1782336143947202560 |