An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network
The operation of an offshore installation is associated with a high level of uncertainty because it usually operates in a dynamic environment in which technical and human and organizational malfunctions may cause possible accidents. This paper proposes a fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) approach to mode...
Published in: | Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering |
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ftumanchesterpub:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/6723d93a-140c-4981-9ede-d2df14c4554b 2023-11-12T04:09:49+01:00 An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network Ren, J. Jenkinson, I. Wang, J. Xu, D. L. Yang, J. B. 2009-11 https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/6723d93a-140c-4981-9ede-d2df14c4554b https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3124123 http://asmedl.aip.org/getpdf/servlet/GetPDFServlet?filetype=pdf&id=JMOEEX000131000004041101000001&idtype=cvips&prog=normal eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Ren , J , Jenkinson , I , Wang , J , Xu , D L & Yang , J B 2009 , ' An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network ' , Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering , vol. 131 , no. 4 , pp. 1-12 . https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3124123 Bayesian networks Fuzzy number Fuzzy probability Offshore engineering systems Risk analysis Safety assessment article 2009 ftumanchesterpub https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3124123 2023-10-30T09:13:29Z The operation of an offshore installation is associated with a high level of uncertainty because it usually operates in a dynamic environment in which technical and human and organizational malfunctions may cause possible accidents. This paper proposes a fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) approach to model causal relationships among risk factors, which may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. The FBN model explicitly represents cause-and-effect assumptions between offshore engineering system variables that may be obscured under other modeling approaches like fuzzy reasoning and Monte Carlo risk analysis. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinions when quantitative data are lacking in early design stages with a high level of innovation or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is also a modular representation of uncertain knowledge due to randomness and vagueness. This makes the risk and safety analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. A case study of the collision risk between a floating production, storage and offloading unit and the authorized vessels due to human errors during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model. Copyright © 2009 by ASME. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic The University of Manchester: Research Explorer Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering 131 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Manchester: Research Explorer |
op_collection_id |
ftumanchesterpub |
language |
English |
topic |
Bayesian networks Fuzzy number Fuzzy probability Offshore engineering systems Risk analysis Safety assessment |
spellingShingle |
Bayesian networks Fuzzy number Fuzzy probability Offshore engineering systems Risk analysis Safety assessment Ren, J. Jenkinson, I. Wang, J. Xu, D. L. Yang, J. B. An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network |
topic_facet |
Bayesian networks Fuzzy number Fuzzy probability Offshore engineering systems Risk analysis Safety assessment |
description |
The operation of an offshore installation is associated with a high level of uncertainty because it usually operates in a dynamic environment in which technical and human and organizational malfunctions may cause possible accidents. This paper proposes a fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) approach to model causal relationships among risk factors, which may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. The FBN model explicitly represents cause-and-effect assumptions between offshore engineering system variables that may be obscured under other modeling approaches like fuzzy reasoning and Monte Carlo risk analysis. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinions when quantitative data are lacking in early design stages with a high level of innovation or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is also a modular representation of uncertain knowledge due to randomness and vagueness. This makes the risk and safety analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. A case study of the collision risk between a floating production, storage and offloading unit and the authorized vessels due to human errors during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model. Copyright © 2009 by ASME. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ren, J. Jenkinson, I. Wang, J. Xu, D. L. Yang, J. B. |
author_facet |
Ren, J. Jenkinson, I. Wang, J. Xu, D. L. Yang, J. B. |
author_sort |
Ren, J. |
title |
An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network |
title_short |
An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network |
title_full |
An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network |
title_fullStr |
An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network |
title_full_unstemmed |
An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network |
title_sort |
offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy bayesian network |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/6723d93a-140c-4981-9ede-d2df14c4554b https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3124123 http://asmedl.aip.org/getpdf/servlet/GetPDFServlet?filetype=pdf&id=JMOEEX000131000004041101000001&idtype=cvips&prog=normal |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Ren , J , Jenkinson , I , Wang , J , Xu , D L & Yang , J B 2009 , ' An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network ' , Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering , vol. 131 , no. 4 , pp. 1-12 . https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3124123 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3124123 |
container_title |
Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering |
container_volume |
131 |
container_issue |
4 |
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1782329617298751488 |