The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion
During the past few years, three-dimensional chemical transport models have matured to a point at which their results are often in good agreement with observations, lending confidence to model estimates of ozone loss. In this paper a Lagrangian photochemical model is used to assess the error in mode...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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1997
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Online Access: | https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/1605168c-485d-41c4-8298-119eb66ddc82 https://doi.org/Doi 10.1029/97jd01971 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/97JD01971/asset/jgrd5312.pdf?v=1&t=idq1xsff&s=68914c8a5a55924e7a67feb6811466d0ae0c6172 |
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ftumanchesterpub:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/1605168c-485d-41c4-8298-119eb66ddc82 2023-11-12T04:11:52+01:00 The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion Fish, D J Burton, M R 1997 https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/1605168c-485d-41c4-8298-119eb66ddc82 https://doi.org/Doi 10.1029/97jd01971 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/97JD01971/asset/jgrd5312.pdf?v=1&t=idq1xsff&s=68914c8a5a55924e7a67feb6811466d0ae0c6172 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Fish , D J & Burton , M R 1997 , ' The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion ' , Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres , vol. 102 , no. D21 , pp. 25537-25542 . https://doi.org/Doi 10.1029/97jd01971 radiation-field troposphere sensitivity propagation absorption article 1997 ftumanchesterpub https://doi.org/10.1029/97jd01971 2023-10-30T09:10:54Z During the past few years, three-dimensional chemical transport models have matured to a point at which their results are often in good agreement with observations, lending confidence to model estimates of ozone loss. In this paper a Lagrangian photochemical model is used to assess the error in model predictions that results from errors in the kinetic and photochemical data used by the model. The results indicate that Arctic ozone destruction can be modeled with an uncertainty of +/- 25% (1 sigma) and that midlatitude ozone destruction can be modeled with an uncertainty of +/- 50%. It is also shown that two reactions, from a total of more than 100, are responsible for more than a third of the uncertainty in model calculations of Arctic ozone loss. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic The University of Manchester: Research Explorer Arctic Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 102 D21 25537 25542 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Manchester: Research Explorer |
op_collection_id |
ftumanchesterpub |
language |
English |
topic |
radiation-field troposphere sensitivity propagation absorption |
spellingShingle |
radiation-field troposphere sensitivity propagation absorption Fish, D J Burton, M R The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion |
topic_facet |
radiation-field troposphere sensitivity propagation absorption |
description |
During the past few years, three-dimensional chemical transport models have matured to a point at which their results are often in good agreement with observations, lending confidence to model estimates of ozone loss. In this paper a Lagrangian photochemical model is used to assess the error in model predictions that results from errors in the kinetic and photochemical data used by the model. The results indicate that Arctic ozone destruction can be modeled with an uncertainty of +/- 25% (1 sigma) and that midlatitude ozone destruction can be modeled with an uncertainty of +/- 50%. It is also shown that two reactions, from a total of more than 100, are responsible for more than a third of the uncertainty in model calculations of Arctic ozone loss. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fish, D J Burton, M R |
author_facet |
Fish, D J Burton, M R |
author_sort |
Fish, D J |
title |
The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion |
title_short |
The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion |
title_full |
The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion |
title_fullStr |
The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion |
title_full_unstemmed |
The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion |
title_sort |
effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion |
publishDate |
1997 |
url |
https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/1605168c-485d-41c4-8298-119eb66ddc82 https://doi.org/Doi 10.1029/97jd01971 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/97JD01971/asset/jgrd5312.pdf?v=1&t=idq1xsff&s=68914c8a5a55924e7a67feb6811466d0ae0c6172 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Fish , D J & Burton , M R 1997 , ' The effect of uncertainties in kinetic and photochemical data on model predictions of stratospheric ozone depletion ' , Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres , vol. 102 , no. D21 , pp. 25537-25542 . https://doi.org/Doi 10.1029/97jd01971 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/97jd01971 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
102 |
container_issue |
D21 |
container_start_page |
25537 |
op_container_end_page |
25542 |
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1782330745902071808 |