Impact of environmental variables on tundra vegetation onset of flowering explained by survival modelling

Timing of phenological events are highly related to climate and is one of the first signs of ecosystem responses to the climate change. Timing of flowering phenology is an important trait influencing the distribution and fitness of plants species. Tundra ecosystems are particularly important to stud...

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Main Author: Jonsson, Hanna
Format: Other/Unknown Material
Language:English
Published: Lunds universitet/Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap 2019
Subjects:
Online Access:http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8985377
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spelling ftulundlupsp:oai:lup-student-papers.lub.lu.se:8985377 2023-07-30T04:07:19+02:00 Impact of environmental variables on tundra vegetation onset of flowering explained by survival modelling Jonsson, Hanna 2019 application/pdf http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8985377 eng eng Lunds universitet/Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8985377 Flowering Phenology Cox proportional hazard model Tundra International tundra experiment Climate change Physical Geography and Ecosystem analysis Earth and Environmental Sciences H2 2019 ftulundlupsp 2023-07-11T20:09:47Z Timing of phenological events are highly related to climate and is one of the first signs of ecosystem responses to the climate change. Timing of flowering phenology is an important trait influencing the distribution and fitness of plants species. Tundra ecosystems are particularly important to study these effects due to short growing seasons, poor pollinator community and a particularly pronounced expected climate change. In this study proportional hazard models are used to explain the impact of environmental variables and experimental warming tundra plant species’ onset of flowering. The results show that global radiation and precipitation are negatively linked to onset of flowering, whereas thawing degree days only showed some weak relationship to flowering. The negative impact of both radiation and precipitation are addressed to cooling the soil surface temperature and indicate further that local air temperature is not sufficient for explaining changes in onset of flowering. In concordance with earlier research higher TDD sum previous year show a negative effect on the timing following year. The effect was particularly large on the early flowering species. Responses to experimental warming were stronger among late flowering dwarf shrubs, although the effect on early flowering species may have been out competed by snow melt dates. The study further suggests that survival modelling can be successfully used in phenology research providing accurate predictions of onset of flowering. Further studies of how the model application perform beyond the study area still needs to be tested. Plant phenology is the study of the seasonal timing of reoccurring plant events such as flowering, leaf bud burst and senescence and how it is affected by environmental factors or by other organisms. Timing of flowering is highly related to climate and influences the distribution and fitness of plants species. Tundra ecosystems are particularly important to study the effect of environmental changes due to the short growing seasons, ... Other/Unknown Material Tundra Lund University Publications Student Papers (LUP-SP)
institution Open Polar
collection Lund University Publications Student Papers (LUP-SP)
op_collection_id ftulundlupsp
language English
topic Flowering
Phenology
Cox proportional hazard model
Tundra
International tundra experiment
Climate change
Physical Geography and Ecosystem analysis
Earth and Environmental Sciences
spellingShingle Flowering
Phenology
Cox proportional hazard model
Tundra
International tundra experiment
Climate change
Physical Geography and Ecosystem analysis
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Jonsson, Hanna
Impact of environmental variables on tundra vegetation onset of flowering explained by survival modelling
topic_facet Flowering
Phenology
Cox proportional hazard model
Tundra
International tundra experiment
Climate change
Physical Geography and Ecosystem analysis
Earth and Environmental Sciences
description Timing of phenological events are highly related to climate and is one of the first signs of ecosystem responses to the climate change. Timing of flowering phenology is an important trait influencing the distribution and fitness of plants species. Tundra ecosystems are particularly important to study these effects due to short growing seasons, poor pollinator community and a particularly pronounced expected climate change. In this study proportional hazard models are used to explain the impact of environmental variables and experimental warming tundra plant species’ onset of flowering. The results show that global radiation and precipitation are negatively linked to onset of flowering, whereas thawing degree days only showed some weak relationship to flowering. The negative impact of both radiation and precipitation are addressed to cooling the soil surface temperature and indicate further that local air temperature is not sufficient for explaining changes in onset of flowering. In concordance with earlier research higher TDD sum previous year show a negative effect on the timing following year. The effect was particularly large on the early flowering species. Responses to experimental warming were stronger among late flowering dwarf shrubs, although the effect on early flowering species may have been out competed by snow melt dates. The study further suggests that survival modelling can be successfully used in phenology research providing accurate predictions of onset of flowering. Further studies of how the model application perform beyond the study area still needs to be tested. Plant phenology is the study of the seasonal timing of reoccurring plant events such as flowering, leaf bud burst and senescence and how it is affected by environmental factors or by other organisms. Timing of flowering is highly related to climate and influences the distribution and fitness of plants species. Tundra ecosystems are particularly important to study the effect of environmental changes due to the short growing seasons, ...
format Other/Unknown Material
author Jonsson, Hanna
author_facet Jonsson, Hanna
author_sort Jonsson, Hanna
title Impact of environmental variables on tundra vegetation onset of flowering explained by survival modelling
title_short Impact of environmental variables on tundra vegetation onset of flowering explained by survival modelling
title_full Impact of environmental variables on tundra vegetation onset of flowering explained by survival modelling
title_fullStr Impact of environmental variables on tundra vegetation onset of flowering explained by survival modelling
title_full_unstemmed Impact of environmental variables on tundra vegetation onset of flowering explained by survival modelling
title_sort impact of environmental variables on tundra vegetation onset of flowering explained by survival modelling
publisher Lunds universitet/Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
publishDate 2019
url http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8985377
genre Tundra
genre_facet Tundra
op_relation http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8985377
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