Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus : Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions
Lack of reliable information on the status of species often leads managers to exclusively rely on experiential knowledge, opinions or perceptions, usually derived from personnel associated with natural resource management agencies. Yet, the accuracy of these sources of information remains largely un...
Published in: | Biological Conservation |
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Online Access: | https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/f45e27ad-1fda-48b1-ab78-429dbf8a4545 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.016 |
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:f45e27ad-1fda-48b1-ab78-429dbf8a4545 2023-05-15T18:42:09+02:00 Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus : Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions Moqanaki, Ehsan M. Jiménez, José Bensch, Staffan López-Bao, José Vicente 2018-04-01 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/f45e27ad-1fda-48b1-ab78-429dbf8a4545 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.016 eng eng Elsevier https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/f45e27ad-1fda-48b1-ab78-429dbf8a4545 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.016 scopus:85044450933 Biological Conservation; 220, pp 182-191 (2018) ISSN: 0006-3207 Fish and Wildlife Management Bear abundance Evidence-based conservation Guesstimates Noninvasive genetic sampling Perceptions Spatial capture-recapture contributiontojournal/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2018 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.016 2023-02-01T23:36:40Z Lack of reliable information on the status of species often leads managers to exclusively rely on experiential knowledge, opinions or perceptions, usually derived from personnel associated with natural resource management agencies. Yet, the accuracy of these sources of information remains largely untested. We approached this challenge, which is particularly common for wildlife monitoring programs in developing countries, using a population of Asian brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the Iranian Caucasus as case study. We conducted a noninvasive, genetic, spatial capture-recapture (SCR) study to estimate bear density across a core protected area, Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve, and compared our estimate of bear abundance with rangers' perceptions as collated through interviews. The perceived abundance of bears by local rangers was between 3 and 5 times higher than our SCR estimate of 40 bears (2.5–97.5% Bayesian Credible Intervals = 27–70; density: 4.88 bears/100 km2). Our results suggest that basing management of the local bear population on perceptions of population status may result in overestimating the likelihood of population persistence. Our findings offer a scientific baseline for an evidence-based conservation policy for brown bears in Iran, and the broader Caucasus Ecoregion. The majority of threatened terrestrial megafauna occur in developing countries, where collecting and analyzing demographic data remain challenging. Delayed conservation responses due to the lack of, or erroneous knowledge of population status of such imperiled species may have serious consequences. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ursus arctos Lund University Publications (LUP) Biological Conservation 220 182 191 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Fish and Wildlife Management Bear abundance Evidence-based conservation Guesstimates Noninvasive genetic sampling Perceptions Spatial capture-recapture |
spellingShingle |
Fish and Wildlife Management Bear abundance Evidence-based conservation Guesstimates Noninvasive genetic sampling Perceptions Spatial capture-recapture Moqanaki, Ehsan M. Jiménez, José Bensch, Staffan López-Bao, José Vicente Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus : Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions |
topic_facet |
Fish and Wildlife Management Bear abundance Evidence-based conservation Guesstimates Noninvasive genetic sampling Perceptions Spatial capture-recapture |
description |
Lack of reliable information on the status of species often leads managers to exclusively rely on experiential knowledge, opinions or perceptions, usually derived from personnel associated with natural resource management agencies. Yet, the accuracy of these sources of information remains largely untested. We approached this challenge, which is particularly common for wildlife monitoring programs in developing countries, using a population of Asian brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the Iranian Caucasus as case study. We conducted a noninvasive, genetic, spatial capture-recapture (SCR) study to estimate bear density across a core protected area, Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve, and compared our estimate of bear abundance with rangers' perceptions as collated through interviews. The perceived abundance of bears by local rangers was between 3 and 5 times higher than our SCR estimate of 40 bears (2.5–97.5% Bayesian Credible Intervals = 27–70; density: 4.88 bears/100 km2). Our results suggest that basing management of the local bear population on perceptions of population status may result in overestimating the likelihood of population persistence. Our findings offer a scientific baseline for an evidence-based conservation policy for brown bears in Iran, and the broader Caucasus Ecoregion. The majority of threatened terrestrial megafauna occur in developing countries, where collecting and analyzing demographic data remain challenging. Delayed conservation responses due to the lack of, or erroneous knowledge of population status of such imperiled species may have serious consequences. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Moqanaki, Ehsan M. Jiménez, José Bensch, Staffan López-Bao, José Vicente |
author_facet |
Moqanaki, Ehsan M. Jiménez, José Bensch, Staffan López-Bao, José Vicente |
author_sort |
Moqanaki, Ehsan M. |
title |
Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus : Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions |
title_short |
Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus : Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions |
title_full |
Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus : Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions |
title_fullStr |
Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus : Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus : Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions |
title_sort |
counting bears in the iranian caucasus : remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/f45e27ad-1fda-48b1-ab78-429dbf8a4545 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.016 |
genre |
Ursus arctos |
genre_facet |
Ursus arctos |
op_source |
Biological Conservation; 220, pp 182-191 (2018) ISSN: 0006-3207 |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/f45e27ad-1fda-48b1-ab78-429dbf8a4545 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.016 scopus:85044450933 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.016 |
container_title |
Biological Conservation |
container_volume |
220 |
container_start_page |
182 |
op_container_end_page |
191 |
_version_ |
1766231769828294656 |