Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region
The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegeta...
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:e926b935-c0ec-43ef-89a4-0a38d4cbaa6c 2023-05-15T13:12:03+02:00 Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region Wolf, Annett Callaghan, Terry V Larson, Karin 2008 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/1196937 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9342-4 eng eng Springer https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/1196937 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9342-4 wos:000253347000004 scopus:39649124443 Climatic Change; 87(1-2), pp 51-73 (2008) ISSN: 0165-0009 Physical Geography contributiontojournal/systematicreview info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2008 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9342-4 2023-02-01T23:32:59Z The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegetation in the global model. We use future climate projections as well as control climate data for 1981-2000 from a regional climate model (REMO) that assumes a development of atmospheric CO2-concentration according to the B2-SRES scenario [IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution working group I to the Third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)]. The model showed a generally good fit with observed data, both qualitatively when model outputs were compared to vegetation maps and quantitatively when compared with observations of biomass, NPP and LAI. The main discrepancy between the model output and observed vegetation is the overestimation of forest abundance for the northern parts of the Kola Peninsula that cannot be explained by climatic factors alone. Over the next hundred years, the model predicted an increase in boreal needle leaved evergreen forest, as extensions northwards and upwards in mountain areas, and as an increase in biomass, NPP and LAI. The model also projected that shade-intolerant broadleaved summergreen trees will be found further north and higher up in the mountain areas. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region. Spring greening will occur earlier and LAI will increase. Consequently, albedo will decrease both in summer and winter time, particularly in the Scandinavian ... Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic barents region Climate change kola peninsula Tundra Lund University Publications (LUP) Arctic Kola Peninsula Remo ENVELOPE(-128.718,-128.718,54.496,54.496) Climatic Change 87 1-2 51 73 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical Geography |
spellingShingle |
Physical Geography Wolf, Annett Callaghan, Terry V Larson, Karin Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region |
topic_facet |
Physical Geography |
description |
The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegetation in the global model. We use future climate projections as well as control climate data for 1981-2000 from a regional climate model (REMO) that assumes a development of atmospheric CO2-concentration according to the B2-SRES scenario [IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution working group I to the Third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)]. The model showed a generally good fit with observed data, both qualitatively when model outputs were compared to vegetation maps and quantitatively when compared with observations of biomass, NPP and LAI. The main discrepancy between the model output and observed vegetation is the overestimation of forest abundance for the northern parts of the Kola Peninsula that cannot be explained by climatic factors alone. Over the next hundred years, the model predicted an increase in boreal needle leaved evergreen forest, as extensions northwards and upwards in mountain areas, and as an increase in biomass, NPP and LAI. The model also projected that shade-intolerant broadleaved summergreen trees will be found further north and higher up in the mountain areas. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region. Spring greening will occur earlier and LAI will increase. Consequently, albedo will decrease both in summer and winter time, particularly in the Scandinavian ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wolf, Annett Callaghan, Terry V Larson, Karin |
author_facet |
Wolf, Annett Callaghan, Terry V Larson, Karin |
author_sort |
Wolf, Annett |
title |
Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region |
title_short |
Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region |
title_full |
Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region |
title_sort |
future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the barents region |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/1196937 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9342-4 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-128.718,-128.718,54.496,54.496) |
geographic |
Arctic Kola Peninsula Remo |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kola Peninsula Remo |
genre |
albedo Arctic barents region Climate change kola peninsula Tundra |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic barents region Climate change kola peninsula Tundra |
op_source |
Climatic Change; 87(1-2), pp 51-73 (2008) ISSN: 0165-0009 |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/1196937 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9342-4 wos:000253347000004 scopus:39649124443 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9342-4 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
87 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
51 |
op_container_end_page |
73 |
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1766250121400418304 |