Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area
We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and dist...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus GmbH
2016
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Online Access: | https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9cbd51f7-6a59-449a-9660-4b0e09296e6c https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016 |
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:9cbd51f7-6a59-449a-9660-4b0e09296e6c 2023-05-15T17:55:20+02:00 Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area Wang, W. Rinke, A. Moore, J. C. Cui, X. Ji, D. Li, Q. Zhang, N. Wang, C. Zhang, S. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Zhang, W. Delire, C. Koven, C. Saito, K. MacDougall, A. Burke, E. Decharme, B. 2016-02-05 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9cbd51f7-6a59-449a-9660-4b0e09296e6c https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016 eng eng Copernicus GmbH https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9cbd51f7-6a59-449a-9660-4b0e09296e6c http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016 scopus:84957596169 Cryosphere; 10(1), pp 287-306 (2016) ISSN: 1994-0416 Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Physical Geography contributiontojournal/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2016 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016 2023-02-01T23:36:52Z We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×104km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Lund University Publications (LUP) Jules ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) The Cryosphere 10 1 287 306 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Physical Geography |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Physical Geography Wang, W. Rinke, A. Moore, J. C. Cui, X. Ji, D. Li, Q. Zhang, N. Wang, C. Zhang, S. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Zhang, W. Delire, C. Koven, C. Saito, K. MacDougall, A. Burke, E. Decharme, B. Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Physical Geography |
description |
We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×104km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, W. Rinke, A. Moore, J. C. Cui, X. Ji, D. Li, Q. Zhang, N. Wang, C. Zhang, S. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Zhang, W. Delire, C. Koven, C. Saito, K. MacDougall, A. Burke, E. Decharme, B. |
author_facet |
Wang, W. Rinke, A. Moore, J. C. Cui, X. Ji, D. Li, Q. Zhang, N. Wang, C. Zhang, S. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Zhang, W. Delire, C. Koven, C. Saito, K. MacDougall, A. Burke, E. Decharme, B. |
author_sort |
Wang, W. |
title |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_short |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_full |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_fullStr |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_full_unstemmed |
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area |
title_sort |
diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated tibetan permafrost area |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9cbd51f7-6a59-449a-9660-4b0e09296e6c https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
geographic |
Jules |
geographic_facet |
Jules |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Cryosphere; 10(1), pp 287-306 (2016) ISSN: 1994-0416 |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9cbd51f7-6a59-449a-9660-4b0e09296e6c http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016 scopus:84957596169 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
287 |
op_container_end_page |
306 |
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1766163263606751232 |