Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of d...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Wiley-Blackwell
2021
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Online Access: | https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/5eb7eac8-80c0-4c81-8b3d-6621ae9ad588 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 |
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:5eb7eac8-80c0-4c81-8b3d-6621ae9ad588 2024-05-19T07:36:44+00:00 Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties Virkkala, Anna Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M. Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C. Natali, Susan M. Watts, Jennifer D. Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward A.G. Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M. Euskirchen, Eugenie S. Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J. Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans Jan W. Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L. Emmerton, Craig A. Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Järveoja, Järvi Nilsson, Mats B. Oberbauer, Steven F. Torn, Margaret S. Park, Sang Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael López-Blanco, Efrén Christensen, Torben Røjle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska 2021 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/5eb7eac8-80c0-4c81-8b3d-6621ae9ad588 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 eng eng Wiley-Blackwell https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/5eb7eac8-80c0-4c81-8b3d-6621ae9ad588 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 scopus:85107431149 pmid:33913236 Global Change Biology; 27(17), pp 4040-4059 (2021) ISSN: 1354-1013 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Arctic CO balance empirical greenhouse gas land permafrost remote sensing contributiontojournal/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2021 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 2024-04-23T23:58:21Z The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic permafrost Tundra Lund University Publications (LUP) Global Change Biology |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Arctic CO balance empirical greenhouse gas land permafrost remote sensing |
spellingShingle |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Arctic CO balance empirical greenhouse gas land permafrost remote sensing Virkkala, Anna Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M. Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C. Natali, Susan M. Watts, Jennifer D. Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward A.G. Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M. Euskirchen, Eugenie S. Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J. Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans Jan W. Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L. Emmerton, Craig A. Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Järveoja, Järvi Nilsson, Mats B. Oberbauer, Steven F. Torn, Margaret S. Park, Sang Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael López-Blanco, Efrén Christensen, Torben Røjle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
topic_facet |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Arctic CO balance empirical greenhouse gas land permafrost remote sensing |
description |
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Virkkala, Anna Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M. Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C. Natali, Susan M. Watts, Jennifer D. Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward A.G. Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M. Euskirchen, Eugenie S. Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J. Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans Jan W. Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L. Emmerton, Craig A. Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Järveoja, Järvi Nilsson, Mats B. Oberbauer, Steven F. Torn, Margaret S. Park, Sang Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael López-Blanco, Efrén Christensen, Torben Røjle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska |
author_facet |
Virkkala, Anna Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M. Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C. Natali, Susan M. Watts, Jennifer D. Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward A.G. Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M. Euskirchen, Eugenie S. Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J. Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans Jan W. Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L. Emmerton, Craig A. Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Järveoja, Järvi Nilsson, Mats B. Oberbauer, Steven F. Torn, Margaret S. Park, Sang Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael López-Blanco, Efrén Christensen, Torben Røjle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska |
author_sort |
Virkkala, Anna Maria |
title |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_short |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_full |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_sort |
statistical upscaling of ecosystem co2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : regional patterns and uncertainties |
publisher |
Wiley-Blackwell |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/5eb7eac8-80c0-4c81-8b3d-6621ae9ad588 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 |
genre |
Arctic permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
Global Change Biology; 27(17), pp 4040-4059 (2021) ISSN: 1354-1013 |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/5eb7eac8-80c0-4c81-8b3d-6621ae9ad588 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 scopus:85107431149 pmid:33913236 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
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1799475869891166208 |