Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic
Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for the Alaskan Arctic from four recent model intercomparison projects - N...
Published in: | Biogeosciences |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus GmbH
2014
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Online Access: | https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4728881 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014 |
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:5d70649e-b583-4ab5-8a68-184dd8623353 2023-05-15T14:43:16+02:00 Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic Fisher, J. B. Sikka, M. Oechel, W. C. Huntzinger, D. N. Melton, J. R. Koven, C. D. Ahlström, Anders Arain, M. A. Baker, I. Chen, J. M. Ciais, P. Davidson, C. Dietze, M. El-Masri, B. Hayes, D. Huntingford, C. Jain, A. K. Levy, P. E. Lomas, M. R. Poulter, B. Price, D. Sahoo, A. K. Schaefer, K. Tian, H. Tomelleri, E. Verbeeck, H. Viovy, N. Wania, R. Zeng, N. Miller, C. E. 2014 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4728881 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014 eng eng Copernicus GmbH https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4728881 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014 wos:000341104400015 scopus:84924866374 Biogeosciences; 11(15), pp 4271-4288 (2014) ISSN: 1726-4189 Physical Geography contributiontojournal/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2014 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014 2023-02-01T23:29:33Z Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for the Alaskan Arctic from four recent model intercomparison projects - NACP (North American Carbon Program) site and regional syntheses, TRENDY (Trends in net land atmosphere carbon exchanges), and WETCHIMP (Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project) - we provide a baseline of terrestrial carbon cycle uncertainty, defined as the multi-model standard deviation (sigma) for each quantity that follows. Mean annual absolute uncertainty was largest for soil carbon (14.0+/-9.2 kgCm(-2)), then gross primary production (GPP) (0.22+/-0.50 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), ecosystem respiration (Re) (0.23+/-0.38 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), net primary production (NPP) (0.14+/-0.33 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), autotrophic respiration (Ra) (0.09+/-0.20 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.14+/-0.20 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (-0.01+/-0.19 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), and CH4 flux (2.52+/-4.02 g CH4 m(-2) yr(-1)). There were no consistent spatial patterns in the larger Alaskan Arctic and boreal regional carbon stocks and fluxes, with some models showing NEE for Alaska as a strong carbon sink, others as a strong carbon source, while still others as carbon neutral. Finally, AmeriFlux data are used at two sites in the Alaskan Arctic to evaluate the regional patterns; observed seasonal NEE was captured within multi-model uncertainty. This assessment of carbon cycle uncertainties may be used as a baseline for the improvement of experimental and modeling activities, as well as a reference for future trajectories in carbon cycling with climate change in the Alaskan Arctic and larger boreal region. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Alaska Lund University Publications (LUP) Arctic Biogeosciences 11 15 4271 4288 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical Geography |
spellingShingle |
Physical Geography Fisher, J. B. Sikka, M. Oechel, W. C. Huntzinger, D. N. Melton, J. R. Koven, C. D. Ahlström, Anders Arain, M. A. Baker, I. Chen, J. M. Ciais, P. Davidson, C. Dietze, M. El-Masri, B. Hayes, D. Huntingford, C. Jain, A. K. Levy, P. E. Lomas, M. R. Poulter, B. Price, D. Sahoo, A. K. Schaefer, K. Tian, H. Tomelleri, E. Verbeeck, H. Viovy, N. Wania, R. Zeng, N. Miller, C. E. Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic |
topic_facet |
Physical Geography |
description |
Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for the Alaskan Arctic from four recent model intercomparison projects - NACP (North American Carbon Program) site and regional syntheses, TRENDY (Trends in net land atmosphere carbon exchanges), and WETCHIMP (Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project) - we provide a baseline of terrestrial carbon cycle uncertainty, defined as the multi-model standard deviation (sigma) for each quantity that follows. Mean annual absolute uncertainty was largest for soil carbon (14.0+/-9.2 kgCm(-2)), then gross primary production (GPP) (0.22+/-0.50 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), ecosystem respiration (Re) (0.23+/-0.38 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), net primary production (NPP) (0.14+/-0.33 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), autotrophic respiration (Ra) (0.09+/-0.20 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.14+/-0.20 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (-0.01+/-0.19 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), and CH4 flux (2.52+/-4.02 g CH4 m(-2) yr(-1)). There were no consistent spatial patterns in the larger Alaskan Arctic and boreal regional carbon stocks and fluxes, with some models showing NEE for Alaska as a strong carbon sink, others as a strong carbon source, while still others as carbon neutral. Finally, AmeriFlux data are used at two sites in the Alaskan Arctic to evaluate the regional patterns; observed seasonal NEE was captured within multi-model uncertainty. This assessment of carbon cycle uncertainties may be used as a baseline for the improvement of experimental and modeling activities, as well as a reference for future trajectories in carbon cycling with climate change in the Alaskan Arctic and larger boreal region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fisher, J. B. Sikka, M. Oechel, W. C. Huntzinger, D. N. Melton, J. R. Koven, C. D. Ahlström, Anders Arain, M. A. Baker, I. Chen, J. M. Ciais, P. Davidson, C. Dietze, M. El-Masri, B. Hayes, D. Huntingford, C. Jain, A. K. Levy, P. E. Lomas, M. R. Poulter, B. Price, D. Sahoo, A. K. Schaefer, K. Tian, H. Tomelleri, E. Verbeeck, H. Viovy, N. Wania, R. Zeng, N. Miller, C. E. |
author_facet |
Fisher, J. B. Sikka, M. Oechel, W. C. Huntzinger, D. N. Melton, J. R. Koven, C. D. Ahlström, Anders Arain, M. A. Baker, I. Chen, J. M. Ciais, P. Davidson, C. Dietze, M. El-Masri, B. Hayes, D. Huntingford, C. Jain, A. K. Levy, P. E. Lomas, M. R. Poulter, B. Price, D. Sahoo, A. K. Schaefer, K. Tian, H. Tomelleri, E. Verbeeck, H. Viovy, N. Wania, R. Zeng, N. Miller, C. E. |
author_sort |
Fisher, J. B. |
title |
Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic |
title_short |
Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic |
title_full |
Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic |
title_sort |
carbon cycle uncertainty in the alaskan arctic |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4728881 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Alaska |
op_source |
Biogeosciences; 11(15), pp 4271-4288 (2014) ISSN: 1726-4189 |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4728881 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014 wos:000341104400015 scopus:84924866374 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
15 |
container_start_page |
4271 |
op_container_end_page |
4288 |
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1766314955437506560 |