Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison
This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which w...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus GmbH
2020
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Online Access: | https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/546966b5-9e1d-4a96-93b4-a0f3188fc84f https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 |
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:546966b5-9e1d-4a96-93b4-a0f3188fc84f 2023-05-15T14:57:07+02:00 Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison Andresen, Christian G. Lawrence, David M. Wilson, Cathy J. David McGuire, A. Koven, Charles Schaefer, Kevin Jafarov, Elchin Peng, Shushi Chen, Xiaodong Gouttevin, Isabelle Burke, Eleanor Chadburn, Sarah Ji, Duoying Chen, Guangsheng Hayes, Daniel Zhang, Wenxin 2020-02-05 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/546966b5-9e1d-4a96-93b4-a0f3188fc84f https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 eng eng Copernicus GmbH https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/546966b5-9e1d-4a96-93b4-a0f3188fc84f http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 scopus:85079124172 Cryosphere; 14(2), pp 445-459 (2020) ISSN: 1994-0416 Physical Geography Water Engineering contributiontojournal/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2020 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 2023-02-01T23:39:58Z This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic permafrost Lund University Publications (LUP) Arctic The Cryosphere 14 2 445 459 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical Geography Water Engineering |
spellingShingle |
Physical Geography Water Engineering Andresen, Christian G. Lawrence, David M. Wilson, Cathy J. David McGuire, A. Koven, Charles Schaefer, Kevin Jafarov, Elchin Peng, Shushi Chen, Xiaodong Gouttevin, Isabelle Burke, Eleanor Chadburn, Sarah Ji, Duoying Chen, Guangsheng Hayes, Daniel Zhang, Wenxin Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
topic_facet |
Physical Geography Water Engineering |
description |
This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andresen, Christian G. Lawrence, David M. Wilson, Cathy J. David McGuire, A. Koven, Charles Schaefer, Kevin Jafarov, Elchin Peng, Shushi Chen, Xiaodong Gouttevin, Isabelle Burke, Eleanor Chadburn, Sarah Ji, Duoying Chen, Guangsheng Hayes, Daniel Zhang, Wenxin |
author_facet |
Andresen, Christian G. Lawrence, David M. Wilson, Cathy J. David McGuire, A. Koven, Charles Schaefer, Kevin Jafarov, Elchin Peng, Shushi Chen, Xiaodong Gouttevin, Isabelle Burke, Eleanor Chadburn, Sarah Ji, Duoying Chen, Guangsheng Hayes, Daniel Zhang, Wenxin |
author_sort |
Andresen, Christian G. |
title |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_short |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_full |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_fullStr |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_full_unstemmed |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_sort |
soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/546966b5-9e1d-4a96-93b4-a0f3188fc84f https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic permafrost |
op_source |
Cryosphere; 14(2), pp 445-459 (2020) ISSN: 1994-0416 |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/546966b5-9e1d-4a96-93b4-a0f3188fc84f http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 scopus:85079124172 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
445 |
op_container_end_page |
459 |
_version_ |
1766329210415087616 |