Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Scandinavian hydropower production and energy markets

• Published in: Water Resources Management
• Main Authors: Cherry, J, Cullen, H, Visbeck, M, Small, A, Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer 2005
• Subjects: Water Engineering; hydropower; energy; North Atlantic oscillation; social impacts; impacts; climate; Norway; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/211947; https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-005-3279-z

Dramatic swings in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during the 1990s motivated the authors to build a statistical model of NAO impacts on hydropower production and energy markets in Scandinavia. Variation in the NAO index is shown to explain 55% of the variance of streamflow in Norway and up to 30% of the variance in Norway's hydropower output. It is also possible to identify the influence of NAO anomalies on electricity consumption and prices. Government liberalization allowed a financial market to grow around the international trading of electricity, which in Norway is produced almost entirely from hydropower. The model offers a possible tool for predicting the effects of future NAO movements on hydropower production and energy prices in Scandinavia. The potential influence of skillful climate prediction is discussed.