Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks
Spruce bark beetle outbreaks are common in Norway spruce forests following windstorm damage, due to ample availability of brood material. The realization of an outbreak depends on factors regulating the Ips typographus population dynamics, such as weather conditions and salvage cutting. In this stud...
Published in: | Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Online Access: | https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3202921 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012 |
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:39e5c43a-b549-4a06-a580-fa3895efbbc6 2023-05-15T17:44:56+02:00 Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks Jönsson, Anna Maria Schroeder, L.M. Lagergren, Fredrik Anderbrant, Olle Smith, Benjamin 2012 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3202921 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012 eng eng Elsevier https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3202921 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012 wos:000313479100020 scopus:84866173323 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; 166-167, pp 188-200 (2012) ISSN: 1873-2240 Zoology Physical Geography Forest management Climate change LPJ-GUESS Risk analysis contributiontojournal/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2012 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012 2023-02-01T23:35:36Z Spruce bark beetle outbreaks are common in Norway spruce forests following windstorm damage, due to ample availability of brood material. The realization of an outbreak depends on factors regulating the Ips typographus population dynamics, such as weather conditions and salvage cutting. In this study, we take an ecosystem modelling approach to analyse the influence of multiple environmental factors on the risk for I. typographus outbreaks. Model calculations of I. typographus phenology and population dynamics as a function of weather and brood tree availability were developed and implemented in the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem modelling framework. The model simulations were driven by gridded climate data covering Sweden with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a daily temporal resolution. Records on storm damage and I. typographus outbreak periods in Sweden for the period of 1960–2009 were used for model evaluation, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the model behaviour. The model simulations replicated the observed pattern in outbreak frequency, being more common in southern and central Sweden than in northern Sweden. A warmer climate allowing for more than one generation per year can increase the risk for attacks on living trees. The effect of countermeasures, aiming at either reduce the availability of brood material or the I. typographus population size, is dependent on a non-linear relation between I. typographus attack density and reproductive success. The sensitivity analysis indicated a major reduction in the risk of attacks on living trees by timely salvage cutting and cutting of infested trees. Knowledge uncertainties associated with attacks on standing trees, i.e. factors influencing tree defence capacity and I. typographus reproductive success, should be further addressed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Sweden Lund University Publications (LUP) Norway Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 166-167 188 200 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Zoology Physical Geography Forest management Climate change LPJ-GUESS Risk analysis |
spellingShingle |
Zoology Physical Geography Forest management Climate change LPJ-GUESS Risk analysis Jönsson, Anna Maria Schroeder, L.M. Lagergren, Fredrik Anderbrant, Olle Smith, Benjamin Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks |
topic_facet |
Zoology Physical Geography Forest management Climate change LPJ-GUESS Risk analysis |
description |
Spruce bark beetle outbreaks are common in Norway spruce forests following windstorm damage, due to ample availability of brood material. The realization of an outbreak depends on factors regulating the Ips typographus population dynamics, such as weather conditions and salvage cutting. In this study, we take an ecosystem modelling approach to analyse the influence of multiple environmental factors on the risk for I. typographus outbreaks. Model calculations of I. typographus phenology and population dynamics as a function of weather and brood tree availability were developed and implemented in the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem modelling framework. The model simulations were driven by gridded climate data covering Sweden with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a daily temporal resolution. Records on storm damage and I. typographus outbreak periods in Sweden for the period of 1960–2009 were used for model evaluation, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the model behaviour. The model simulations replicated the observed pattern in outbreak frequency, being more common in southern and central Sweden than in northern Sweden. A warmer climate allowing for more than one generation per year can increase the risk for attacks on living trees. The effect of countermeasures, aiming at either reduce the availability of brood material or the I. typographus population size, is dependent on a non-linear relation between I. typographus attack density and reproductive success. The sensitivity analysis indicated a major reduction in the risk of attacks on living trees by timely salvage cutting and cutting of infested trees. Knowledge uncertainties associated with attacks on standing trees, i.e. factors influencing tree defence capacity and I. typographus reproductive success, should be further addressed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jönsson, Anna Maria Schroeder, L.M. Lagergren, Fredrik Anderbrant, Olle Smith, Benjamin |
author_facet |
Jönsson, Anna Maria Schroeder, L.M. Lagergren, Fredrik Anderbrant, Olle Smith, Benjamin |
author_sort |
Jönsson, Anna Maria |
title |
Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks |
title_short |
Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks |
title_full |
Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks |
title_fullStr |
Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks |
title_full_unstemmed |
Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks |
title_sort |
guess the impact of ips typographus – an ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3202921 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Northern Sweden |
genre_facet |
Northern Sweden |
op_source |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; 166-167, pp 188-200 (2012) ISSN: 1873-2240 |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3202921 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012 wos:000313479100020 scopus:84866173323 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012 |
container_title |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
container_volume |
166-167 |
container_start_page |
188 |
op_container_end_page |
200 |
_version_ |
1766147246160609280 |