Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions
A large ensemble of regional climate model projections was investigated regarding if and when they show an emergence of significant climate change signals in seasonal temperature and precipitation within Europe. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as simulated in the projections,...
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Online Access: | https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3853422 https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01146 |
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:36a8af60-86e4-4a97-950c-6f11befc59a2 2023-05-15T17:34:00+02:00 Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions Kjellstrom, Erik Thejll, Peter Rummukainen, Markku Christensen, Jens H. Boberg, Fredrik Christensen, Ole B. Maule, Cathrine Fox 2013 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3853422 https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01146 eng eng Inter-Research https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3853422 http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01146 wos:000318055400002 scopus:84875339915 Climate Research; 56(2), pp 103-119 (2013) ISSN: 1616-1572 Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Climate change Emerging trends Europe Regional climate models NAO contributiontojournal/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2013 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01146 2023-02-01T23:29:16Z A large ensemble of regional climate model projections was investigated regarding if and when they show an emergence of significant climate change signals in seasonal temperature and precipitation within Europe. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as simulated in the projections, was investigated. In most parts of Europe, the projections indicate robust emergence of temperature change in the first 2 decades of the 21st century, typically earlier for summer than for winter. For precipitation changes, signals generally emerge much later than for temperature. For Europe as a whole, the precipitation signals tend to emerge some 40 to 60 yr later than the temperature signals. In some sub-regions, robust signals for precipitation are not found within the studied period, i.e. until 2100. Some sub-regions, notably the Mediterranean area and Scandinavia, show different behaviour in some aspects compared to the ensemble-based results as a whole. NAO has some influence on the temperature change signals, which emerge earlier in winter for some models and regions if NAO is accounted for. For summer temperatures, the influence of NAO is less evident. Similarly, for precipitation, accounting for NAO leads to an earlier emergence in some regions and models. Here, we find an impact for both summer and winter. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Lund University Publications (LUP) Climate Research 56 2 103 119 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Climate change Emerging trends Europe Regional climate models NAO |
spellingShingle |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Climate change Emerging trends Europe Regional climate models NAO Kjellstrom, Erik Thejll, Peter Rummukainen, Markku Christensen, Jens H. Boberg, Fredrik Christensen, Ole B. Maule, Cathrine Fox Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions |
topic_facet |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Climate change Emerging trends Europe Regional climate models NAO |
description |
A large ensemble of regional climate model projections was investigated regarding if and when they show an emergence of significant climate change signals in seasonal temperature and precipitation within Europe. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as simulated in the projections, was investigated. In most parts of Europe, the projections indicate robust emergence of temperature change in the first 2 decades of the 21st century, typically earlier for summer than for winter. For precipitation changes, signals generally emerge much later than for temperature. For Europe as a whole, the precipitation signals tend to emerge some 40 to 60 yr later than the temperature signals. In some sub-regions, robust signals for precipitation are not found within the studied period, i.e. until 2100. Some sub-regions, notably the Mediterranean area and Scandinavia, show different behaviour in some aspects compared to the ensemble-based results as a whole. NAO has some influence on the temperature change signals, which emerge earlier in winter for some models and regions if NAO is accounted for. For summer temperatures, the influence of NAO is less evident. Similarly, for precipitation, accounting for NAO leads to an earlier emergence in some regions and models. Here, we find an impact for both summer and winter. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kjellstrom, Erik Thejll, Peter Rummukainen, Markku Christensen, Jens H. Boberg, Fredrik Christensen, Ole B. Maule, Cathrine Fox |
author_facet |
Kjellstrom, Erik Thejll, Peter Rummukainen, Markku Christensen, Jens H. Boberg, Fredrik Christensen, Ole B. Maule, Cathrine Fox |
author_sort |
Kjellstrom, Erik |
title |
Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions |
title_short |
Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions |
title_full |
Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions |
title_fullStr |
Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions |
title_sort |
emerging regional climate change signals for europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions |
publisher |
Inter-Research |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3853422 https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01146 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Climate Research; 56(2), pp 103-119 (2013) ISSN: 1616-1572 |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3853422 http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01146 wos:000318055400002 scopus:84875339915 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01146 |
container_title |
Climate Research |
container_volume |
56 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
103 |
op_container_end_page |
119 |
_version_ |
1766132690243813376 |