Fire Dynamics in Boreal Forests Over the 20th Century : A Data-Model Comparison
Fire regimes across the world are expected to be altered by continuing variations in socio-economic conditions and climate. Current global fire-vegetation models are able to represent the present-day fire activity, but it is unclear how well they can simulate past or future scenarios. Here we use se...
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:2efd09db-135c-4658-9159-ed49ca825939 2023-05-15T16:12:08+02:00 Fire Dynamics in Boreal Forests Over the 20th Century : A Data-Model Comparison Molinari, Chiara Hantson, Stijn Nieradzik, Lars Peter 2021-09-16 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/2efd09db-135c-4658-9159-ed49ca825939 https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.728958 eng eng Frontiers Media S. A. https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/2efd09db-135c-4658-9159-ed49ca825939 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.728958 scopus:85116282431 Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution; 9, no 728958 (2021) ISSN: 2296-701X Forest Science Ecology biomass burning burnt area carbon flux fire model sedimentary charcoal record Spearman correlation coefficient contributiontojournal/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2021 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.728958 2023-02-01T23:38:53Z Fire regimes across the world are expected to be altered by continuing variations in socio-economic conditions and climate. Current global fire-vegetation models are able to represent the present-day fire activity, but it is unclear how well they can simulate past or future scenarios. Here we use sedimentary charcoal-based biomass burning reconstructions to evaluate fire probability and total carbon flux emitted to the atmosphere per year simulated by the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS with its incorporated fire model SIMFIRE-BLAZE across the boreal region during the last century. The analyses were run for the whole time period (1900–2000 CE), as well as for the intervals 1900–1950 CE and 1950–2000 CE. The data–model comparison for the 20th century reveals a general disagreement in trends between charcoal reconstructions (with decreasing or stable trends) and simulations (showing an overall increase) at both global (boreal forests) and continental scales (North America and Fennoscandia), as well as for most of the regional sub-areas (Canada, Norway and Sweden). The only exceptions are Alaska and Finland/Russia Karelia, where all the variables increase. Negative correlations between observations and model outputs are also recorded for the two different sub-periods, except for Alaska and North America during the time interval 1900–1950 CE, and Norway and Finland/Russia Karelia between 1950 and 2000 CE. Despite several uncertainties in charcoal records, main differences between modeled and observed fire activity are probably due to limitations in the representation of the human impact on fire regime (especially connected to forest management and landscape fragmentation) in the model simulations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandia karelia* karelia* Alaska Lund University Publications (LUP) Canada Norway Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Forest Science Ecology biomass burning burnt area carbon flux fire model sedimentary charcoal record Spearman correlation coefficient |
spellingShingle |
Forest Science Ecology biomass burning burnt area carbon flux fire model sedimentary charcoal record Spearman correlation coefficient Molinari, Chiara Hantson, Stijn Nieradzik, Lars Peter Fire Dynamics in Boreal Forests Over the 20th Century : A Data-Model Comparison |
topic_facet |
Forest Science Ecology biomass burning burnt area carbon flux fire model sedimentary charcoal record Spearman correlation coefficient |
description |
Fire regimes across the world are expected to be altered by continuing variations in socio-economic conditions and climate. Current global fire-vegetation models are able to represent the present-day fire activity, but it is unclear how well they can simulate past or future scenarios. Here we use sedimentary charcoal-based biomass burning reconstructions to evaluate fire probability and total carbon flux emitted to the atmosphere per year simulated by the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS with its incorporated fire model SIMFIRE-BLAZE across the boreal region during the last century. The analyses were run for the whole time period (1900–2000 CE), as well as for the intervals 1900–1950 CE and 1950–2000 CE. The data–model comparison for the 20th century reveals a general disagreement in trends between charcoal reconstructions (with decreasing or stable trends) and simulations (showing an overall increase) at both global (boreal forests) and continental scales (North America and Fennoscandia), as well as for most of the regional sub-areas (Canada, Norway and Sweden). The only exceptions are Alaska and Finland/Russia Karelia, where all the variables increase. Negative correlations between observations and model outputs are also recorded for the two different sub-periods, except for Alaska and North America during the time interval 1900–1950 CE, and Norway and Finland/Russia Karelia between 1950 and 2000 CE. Despite several uncertainties in charcoal records, main differences between modeled and observed fire activity are probably due to limitations in the representation of the human impact on fire regime (especially connected to forest management and landscape fragmentation) in the model simulations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Molinari, Chiara Hantson, Stijn Nieradzik, Lars Peter |
author_facet |
Molinari, Chiara Hantson, Stijn Nieradzik, Lars Peter |
author_sort |
Molinari, Chiara |
title |
Fire Dynamics in Boreal Forests Over the 20th Century : A Data-Model Comparison |
title_short |
Fire Dynamics in Boreal Forests Over the 20th Century : A Data-Model Comparison |
title_full |
Fire Dynamics in Boreal Forests Over the 20th Century : A Data-Model Comparison |
title_fullStr |
Fire Dynamics in Boreal Forests Over the 20th Century : A Data-Model Comparison |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fire Dynamics in Boreal Forests Over the 20th Century : A Data-Model Comparison |
title_sort |
fire dynamics in boreal forests over the 20th century : a data-model comparison |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S. A. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/2efd09db-135c-4658-9159-ed49ca825939 https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.728958 |
geographic |
Canada Norway |
geographic_facet |
Canada Norway |
genre |
Fennoscandia karelia* karelia* Alaska |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia karelia* karelia* Alaska |
op_source |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution; 9, no 728958 (2021) ISSN: 2296-701X |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/2efd09db-135c-4658-9159-ed49ca825939 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.728958 scopus:85116282431 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.728958 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
9 |
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1765997381998870528 |