Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change
Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate...
Published in: | Climatic Change |
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Online Access: | https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4043111 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
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ftulundlup:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:09c4b588-56fa-4dd7-98e5-dfa79849c09a 2023-05-15T17:55:44+02:00 Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change Schuur, E. A. G. Abbott, B. W. Bowden, W. B. Brovkin, V. Camill, P. Canadell, J. G. Chanton, J. P. Chapin III, F. S. Christensen, Torben Ciais, P. Crosby, B. T. Czimczik, C. I. Grosse, G. Harden, J. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jastrow, J. D. Jones, J. B. Kleinen, T. Koven, C. D. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. O'Donnell, J. A. Ping, C. L. Riley, W. J. Rinke, A. Romanovsky, V. E. Sannel, A. B. K. Schaedel, C. Schaefer, K. Sky, J. Subin, Z. M. Tarnocai, C. Turetsky, M. R. Waldrop, M. P. Anthony, K. M. Walter Wickland, K. P. Wilson, C. J. Zimov, S. A. 2013 https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4043111 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 eng eng Springer https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4043111 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 wos:000321955100012 scopus:84879142167 Climatic Change; 119(2), pp 359-374 (2013) ISSN: 0165-0009 Physical Geography contributiontojournal/article info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2013 ftulundlup https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 2023-02-01T23:29:55Z Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Lund University Publications (LUP) Climatic Change 119 2 359 374 |
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Open Polar |
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Lund University Publications (LUP) |
op_collection_id |
ftulundlup |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical Geography |
spellingShingle |
Physical Geography Schuur, E. A. G. Abbott, B. W. Bowden, W. B. Brovkin, V. Camill, P. Canadell, J. G. Chanton, J. P. Chapin III, F. S. Christensen, Torben Ciais, P. Crosby, B. T. Czimczik, C. I. Grosse, G. Harden, J. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jastrow, J. D. Jones, J. B. Kleinen, T. Koven, C. D. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. O'Donnell, J. A. Ping, C. L. Riley, W. J. Rinke, A. Romanovsky, V. E. Sannel, A. B. K. Schaedel, C. Schaefer, K. Sky, J. Subin, Z. M. Tarnocai, C. Turetsky, M. R. Waldrop, M. P. Anthony, K. M. Walter Wickland, K. P. Wilson, C. J. Zimov, S. A. Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
topic_facet |
Physical Geography |
description |
Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schuur, E. A. G. Abbott, B. W. Bowden, W. B. Brovkin, V. Camill, P. Canadell, J. G. Chanton, J. P. Chapin III, F. S. Christensen, Torben Ciais, P. Crosby, B. T. Czimczik, C. I. Grosse, G. Harden, J. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jastrow, J. D. Jones, J. B. Kleinen, T. Koven, C. D. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. O'Donnell, J. A. Ping, C. L. Riley, W. J. Rinke, A. Romanovsky, V. E. Sannel, A. B. K. Schaedel, C. Schaefer, K. Sky, J. Subin, Z. M. Tarnocai, C. Turetsky, M. R. Waldrop, M. P. Anthony, K. M. Walter Wickland, K. P. Wilson, C. J. Zimov, S. A. |
author_facet |
Schuur, E. A. G. Abbott, B. W. Bowden, W. B. Brovkin, V. Camill, P. Canadell, J. G. Chanton, J. P. Chapin III, F. S. Christensen, Torben Ciais, P. Crosby, B. T. Czimczik, C. I. Grosse, G. Harden, J. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jastrow, J. D. Jones, J. B. Kleinen, T. Koven, C. D. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. O'Donnell, J. A. Ping, C. L. Riley, W. J. Rinke, A. Romanovsky, V. E. Sannel, A. B. K. Schaedel, C. Schaefer, K. Sky, J. Subin, Z. M. Tarnocai, C. Turetsky, M. R. Waldrop, M. P. Anthony, K. M. Walter Wickland, K. P. Wilson, C. J. Zimov, S. A. |
author_sort |
Schuur, E. A. G. |
title |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_short |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_full |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_sort |
expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4043111 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Climatic Change; 119(2), pp 359-374 (2013) ISSN: 0165-0009 |
op_relation |
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4043111 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 wos:000321955100012 scopus:84879142167 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
119 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
359 |
op_container_end_page |
374 |
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1766163713269694464 |