Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning
Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, quantitative estimates of sepa...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f687b12b-5a59-45d6-98d7-857d1445f069 |
id |
ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:f687b12b-5a59-45d6-98d7-857d1445f069 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:f687b12b-5a59-45d6-98d7-857d1445f069 2023-05-15T17:32:50+02:00 Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning Pillar, H Heimbach, P Johnson, H Marshall, D 2016-07-29 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f687b12b-5a59-45d6-98d7-857d1445f069 unknown American Meteorological Society doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f687b12b-5a59-45d6-98d7-857d1445f069 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) CC-BY Journal article 2016 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1 2022-06-28T20:28:15Z Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, quantitative estimates of separate contributions from wind and buoyancy forcing to AMOC variations at 25°N are obtained. These estimates are achieved by projecting observed atmospheric anomalies onto model-based dynamical patterns of AMOC sensitivity to surface wind, thermal, and freshwater forcing over the preceding 15 years. Local wind forcing is shown to dominate AMOC variability on short time scales, whereas subpolar heat fluxes dominate on decadal time scales. The reconstructed transport time series successfully reproduces most of the interannual variability observed by RAPID–MOCHA. However, the apparent decadal trend in the RAPID–MOCHA time series is not captured, requiring improved model representation of ocean adjustment to subpolar heat fluxes over at least the past two decades and highlighting the importance of sustained monitoring of the high-latitude North Atlantic. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Journal of Climate 29 9 3339 3352 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftuloxford |
language |
unknown |
description |
Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, quantitative estimates of separate contributions from wind and buoyancy forcing to AMOC variations at 25°N are obtained. These estimates are achieved by projecting observed atmospheric anomalies onto model-based dynamical patterns of AMOC sensitivity to surface wind, thermal, and freshwater forcing over the preceding 15 years. Local wind forcing is shown to dominate AMOC variability on short time scales, whereas subpolar heat fluxes dominate on decadal time scales. The reconstructed transport time series successfully reproduces most of the interannual variability observed by RAPID–MOCHA. However, the apparent decadal trend in the RAPID–MOCHA time series is not captured, requiring improved model representation of ocean adjustment to subpolar heat fluxes over at least the past two decades and highlighting the importance of sustained monitoring of the high-latitude North Atlantic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pillar, H Heimbach, P Johnson, H Marshall, D |
spellingShingle |
Pillar, H Heimbach, P Johnson, H Marshall, D Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning |
author_facet |
Pillar, H Heimbach, P Johnson, H Marshall, D |
author_sort |
Pillar, H |
title |
Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning |
title_short |
Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning |
title_full |
Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning |
title_fullStr |
Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning |
title_sort |
dynamical attribution of recent variability in atlantic overturning |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f687b12b-5a59-45d6-98d7-857d1445f069 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f687b12b-5a59-45d6-98d7-857d1445f069 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3339 |
op_container_end_page |
3352 |
_version_ |
1766131124016250880 |