Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean
We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle a...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e309a631-b660-4b0d-8c80-2a1864f550a2 |
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ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:e309a631-b660-4b0d-8c80-2a1864f550a2 2023-05-15T13:16:17+02:00 Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean Clairbaux, M Cheung, WWL Mathewson, P Porter, W Courbin, N Fort, J Strøm, H Moe, B Fauchald, P Descamps, S Helgason, H Bråthen, VS Merkel, B Anker-Nilssen, T Bringsvor, IS Chastel, O Christensen-Dalsgaard, S Danielsen, J Daunt, F Dehnhard, N Erikstad, K-E Ezhov, A Gavrilo, M Krasnov, Y Langset, M Lorentsen, S-H Newell, M Olsen, B Reiertsen, TK Systad, G Þórarinsson, ÞL Baran, M Diamond, T Fayet, AL Fitzsimmons, MG Frederiksen, M Gilchrist, GH Guilford, T Huffeldt, NP Jessopp, M Johansen, KL Kouwenberg, AL Linnebjerg, JF McFarlane Tranquilla, L Mallory, M Merkel, FR Montevecchi, W Mosbech, A Petersen, A Grémillet, D 2021-03-23 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e309a631-b660-4b0d-8c80-2a1864f550a2 eng eng Wiley doi:10.1111/gcb.15497 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e309a631-b660-4b0d-8c80-2a1864f550a2 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Journal article 2021 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 2022-06-28T20:26:20Z We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper Alle alle fratercula Fratercula arctica North Atlantic rissa tridactyla Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Global Change Biology 27 7 1457 1469 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftuloxford |
language |
English |
description |
We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Clairbaux, M Cheung, WWL Mathewson, P Porter, W Courbin, N Fort, J Strøm, H Moe, B Fauchald, P Descamps, S Helgason, H Bråthen, VS Merkel, B Anker-Nilssen, T Bringsvor, IS Chastel, O Christensen-Dalsgaard, S Danielsen, J Daunt, F Dehnhard, N Erikstad, K-E Ezhov, A Gavrilo, M Krasnov, Y Langset, M Lorentsen, S-H Newell, M Olsen, B Reiertsen, TK Systad, G Þórarinsson, ÞL Baran, M Diamond, T Fayet, AL Fitzsimmons, MG Frederiksen, M Gilchrist, GH Guilford, T Huffeldt, NP Jessopp, M Johansen, KL Kouwenberg, AL Linnebjerg, JF McFarlane Tranquilla, L Mallory, M Merkel, FR Montevecchi, W Mosbech, A Petersen, A Grémillet, D |
spellingShingle |
Clairbaux, M Cheung, WWL Mathewson, P Porter, W Courbin, N Fort, J Strøm, H Moe, B Fauchald, P Descamps, S Helgason, H Bråthen, VS Merkel, B Anker-Nilssen, T Bringsvor, IS Chastel, O Christensen-Dalsgaard, S Danielsen, J Daunt, F Dehnhard, N Erikstad, K-E Ezhov, A Gavrilo, M Krasnov, Y Langset, M Lorentsen, S-H Newell, M Olsen, B Reiertsen, TK Systad, G Þórarinsson, ÞL Baran, M Diamond, T Fayet, AL Fitzsimmons, MG Frederiksen, M Gilchrist, GH Guilford, T Huffeldt, NP Jessopp, M Johansen, KL Kouwenberg, AL Linnebjerg, JF McFarlane Tranquilla, L Mallory, M Merkel, FR Montevecchi, W Mosbech, A Petersen, A Grémillet, D Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
author_facet |
Clairbaux, M Cheung, WWL Mathewson, P Porter, W Courbin, N Fort, J Strøm, H Moe, B Fauchald, P Descamps, S Helgason, H Bråthen, VS Merkel, B Anker-Nilssen, T Bringsvor, IS Chastel, O Christensen-Dalsgaard, S Danielsen, J Daunt, F Dehnhard, N Erikstad, K-E Ezhov, A Gavrilo, M Krasnov, Y Langset, M Lorentsen, S-H Newell, M Olsen, B Reiertsen, TK Systad, G Þórarinsson, ÞL Baran, M Diamond, T Fayet, AL Fitzsimmons, MG Frederiksen, M Gilchrist, GH Guilford, T Huffeldt, NP Jessopp, M Johansen, KL Kouwenberg, AL Linnebjerg, JF McFarlane Tranquilla, L Mallory, M Merkel, FR Montevecchi, W Mosbech, A Petersen, A Grémillet, D |
author_sort |
Clairbaux, M |
title |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
meeting paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the north atlantic ocean |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e309a631-b660-4b0d-8c80-2a1864f550a2 |
genre |
Alle alle fratercula Fratercula arctica North Atlantic rissa tridactyla Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria |
genre_facet |
Alle alle fratercula Fratercula arctica North Atlantic rissa tridactyla Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria |
op_relation |
doi:10.1111/gcb.15497 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e309a631-b660-4b0d-8c80-2a1864f550a2 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1457 |
op_container_end_page |
1469 |
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1766273334801072128 |