Constraining projections using decadal predictions
There is increasing demand for robust, reliable and actionable climate information for the next 1 to 50 years. This is challenging for the scientific community as the longest initialized predictions are limited to 10 years (decadal predictions). Thus, to provide seamless information for the upcoming...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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American Geophysical Union
2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087900 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:cac61e9e-59ee-4390-944f-15c8e6791cea |
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ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:cac61e9e-59ee-4390-944f-15c8e6791cea 2023-05-15T17:32:27+02:00 Constraining projections using decadal predictions Befort, DJ O'Reilly, CH Weisheimer, A 2020-09-28 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087900 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:cac61e9e-59ee-4390-944f-15c8e6791cea eng eng American Geophysical Union doi:10.1029/2020GL087900 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:cac61e9e-59ee-4390-944f-15c8e6791cea https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087900 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) CC-BY Journal article 2020 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087900 2022-06-28T20:23:56Z There is increasing demand for robust, reliable and actionable climate information for the next 1 to 50 years. This is challenging for the scientific community as the longest initialized predictions are limited to 10 years (decadal predictions). Thus, to provide seamless information for the upcoming 50 years, information from decadal predictions and uninitialized projections need to be merged. In this study, the ability to obtain valuable climate information beyond decadal time-scales by constraining uninitialized projections using decadal predictions is assessed. The application of this framework to surface temperatures over the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre region, shows that the constrained uninitialized sub-ensemble has higher skill compared to the overall projection ensemble also beyond ten years when information from decadal predictions is no longer available. Though showing the potential of such a constraining approach to obtain climate information for the near-term future, its utility depends on the added value of initialization. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Geophysical Research Letters 47 18 |
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Open Polar |
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ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
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ftuloxford |
language |
English |
description |
There is increasing demand for robust, reliable and actionable climate information for the next 1 to 50 years. This is challenging for the scientific community as the longest initialized predictions are limited to 10 years (decadal predictions). Thus, to provide seamless information for the upcoming 50 years, information from decadal predictions and uninitialized projections need to be merged. In this study, the ability to obtain valuable climate information beyond decadal time-scales by constraining uninitialized projections using decadal predictions is assessed. The application of this framework to surface temperatures over the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre region, shows that the constrained uninitialized sub-ensemble has higher skill compared to the overall projection ensemble also beyond ten years when information from decadal predictions is no longer available. Though showing the potential of such a constraining approach to obtain climate information for the near-term future, its utility depends on the added value of initialization. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Befort, DJ O'Reilly, CH Weisheimer, A |
spellingShingle |
Befort, DJ O'Reilly, CH Weisheimer, A Constraining projections using decadal predictions |
author_facet |
Befort, DJ O'Reilly, CH Weisheimer, A |
author_sort |
Befort, DJ |
title |
Constraining projections using decadal predictions |
title_short |
Constraining projections using decadal predictions |
title_full |
Constraining projections using decadal predictions |
title_fullStr |
Constraining projections using decadal predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constraining projections using decadal predictions |
title_sort |
constraining projections using decadal predictions |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087900 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:cac61e9e-59ee-4390-944f-15c8e6791cea |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
doi:10.1029/2020GL087900 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:cac61e9e-59ee-4390-944f-15c8e6791cea https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087900 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087900 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
18 |
_version_ |
1766130604253904896 |