Implications of changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change
The first principal component of Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure, known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, has increased significantly in recent winters, and this change is associated with ~30% of Northern Hemisphere January-March warming. We examine the AO in a model used to detect anthro...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010981 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b0d0a7d5-73aa-466c-b0ca-effc2b0da97f |
id |
ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:b0d0a7d5-73aa-466c-b0ca-effc2b0da97f |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:b0d0a7d5-73aa-466c-b0ca-effc2b0da97f 2023-05-15T15:02:59+02:00 Implications of changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change Gillett, N Hegerl, G Allen, M Stott, P 2016-07-29 https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010981 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b0d0a7d5-73aa-466c-b0ca-effc2b0da97f eng eng doi:10.1029/1999GL010981 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b0d0a7d5-73aa-466c-b0ca-effc2b0da97f https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010981 info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess Journal article 2016 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010981 2022-06-28T20:21:24Z The first principal component of Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure, known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, has increased significantly in recent winters, and this change is associated with ~30% of Northern Hemisphere January-March warming. We examine the AO in a model used to detect anthropogenic influence on climate, and find that it exhibits no systematic trend in response to greenhouse gas, sulphate aerosol, or ozone forcing. To test the significance of this discrepancy for anthropogenic climate change detection, we include the spatio-temporal pattern of temperature change associated with the observed AO in the set of forcing-response 'fingerprints' used to account for observed changes, thus separating temperature change associated with the AO from a residual. We find that the detection of a global response to both anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols is robust to this exclusion of AO-related warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 27 7 993 996 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftuloxford |
language |
English |
description |
The first principal component of Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure, known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, has increased significantly in recent winters, and this change is associated with ~30% of Northern Hemisphere January-March warming. We examine the AO in a model used to detect anthropogenic influence on climate, and find that it exhibits no systematic trend in response to greenhouse gas, sulphate aerosol, or ozone forcing. To test the significance of this discrepancy for anthropogenic climate change detection, we include the spatio-temporal pattern of temperature change associated with the observed AO in the set of forcing-response 'fingerprints' used to account for observed changes, thus separating temperature change associated with the AO from a residual. We find that the detection of a global response to both anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols is robust to this exclusion of AO-related warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gillett, N Hegerl, G Allen, M Stott, P |
spellingShingle |
Gillett, N Hegerl, G Allen, M Stott, P Implications of changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change |
author_facet |
Gillett, N Hegerl, G Allen, M Stott, P |
author_sort |
Gillett, N |
title |
Implications of changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change |
title_short |
Implications of changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change |
title_full |
Implications of changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change |
title_fullStr |
Implications of changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Implications of changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change |
title_sort |
implications of changes in the northern hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010981 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b0d0a7d5-73aa-466c-b0ca-effc2b0da97f |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
doi:10.1029/1999GL010981 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b0d0a7d5-73aa-466c-b0ca-effc2b0da97f https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010981 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010981 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
993 |
op_container_end_page |
996 |
_version_ |
1766334893928742912 |