A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK
Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptatio...
Published in: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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European Geosciences Union
2018
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a77c3b9b-4d38-47f7-a63c-3d3799c5d298 |
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ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:a77c3b9b-4d38-47f7-a63c-3d3799c5d298 2023-05-15T18:18:12+02:00 A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK Guillod, B Jones, R Dadson, S Coxon, G Bussi, G Freer, J Kay, A Massey, N Sparrow, S Wallom, D Allen, M Hall, J 2018-01-26 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a77c3b9b-4d38-47f7-a63c-3d3799c5d298 unknown European Geosciences Union doi:10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a77c3b9b-4d38-47f7-a63c-3d3799c5d298 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) CC-BY Journal article 2018 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 2022-06-28T20:20:30Z Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of riskbased approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900–2006), (ii) five nearfuture scenarios (2020–2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070–2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period (> 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22 1 611 634 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftuloxford |
language |
unknown |
description |
Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of riskbased approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900–2006), (ii) five nearfuture scenarios (2020–2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070–2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period (> 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Guillod, B Jones, R Dadson, S Coxon, G Bussi, G Freer, J Kay, A Massey, N Sparrow, S Wallom, D Allen, M Hall, J |
spellingShingle |
Guillod, B Jones, R Dadson, S Coxon, G Bussi, G Freer, J Kay, A Massey, N Sparrow, S Wallom, D Allen, M Hall, J A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK |
author_facet |
Guillod, B Jones, R Dadson, S Coxon, G Bussi, G Freer, J Kay, A Massey, N Sparrow, S Wallom, D Allen, M Hall, J |
author_sort |
Guillod, B |
title |
A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK |
title_short |
A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK |
title_full |
A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK |
title_fullStr |
A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK |
title_full_unstemmed |
A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK |
title_sort |
large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the uk |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a77c3b9b-4d38-47f7-a63c-3d3799c5d298 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a77c3b9b-4d38-47f7-a63c-3d3799c5d298 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
611 |
op_container_end_page |
634 |
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1766194680997871616 |