Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries
Objective To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. Design Time series analysis. Setting 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. Participants Annual all cause mortality data...
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ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:7101a244-93bb-4bfc-8c83-7d80d21d612c 2023-05-15T16:49:38+02:00 Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries Islam, N Jdanov, DA Shkolnikov, VM Khunti, K Kawachi, I White, M Lewington, S Lacey, B 2021-11-08 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:7101a244-93bb-4bfc-8c83-7d80d21d612c eng eng BMJ doi:10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:7101a244-93bb-4bfc-8c83-7d80d21d612c https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) CC-BY Journal article 2021 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 2022-06-28T20:15:14Z Objective To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. Design Time series analysis. Setting 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. Participants Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. Main outcome measures Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table. Results Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: −2.33, 95% confidence interval −2.50 to −2.17; women: −2.14, −2.25 to −2.03), the United States (men: −2.27, −2.39 to −2.15; women: −1.61, −1.70 to −1.51), Bulgaria (men: −1.96, −2.11 to −1.81; women: −1.37, −1.74 to −1.01), Lithuania (men: −1.83, −2.07 to −1.59; women: −1.21, −1.36 to −1.05), Chile (men: −1.64, −1.97 to −1.32; women: −0.88, −1.28 to −0.50), and Spain (men: −1.35, −1.53 to −1.18; women: −1.13, −1.37 to −0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% confidence interval ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland ORA - Oxford University Research Archive New Zealand Norway BMJ e066768 |
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ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
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ftuloxford |
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English |
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Objective To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. Design Time series analysis. Setting 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. Participants Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. Main outcome measures Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table. Results Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: −2.33, 95% confidence interval −2.50 to −2.17; women: −2.14, −2.25 to −2.03), the United States (men: −2.27, −2.39 to −2.15; women: −1.61, −1.70 to −1.51), Bulgaria (men: −1.96, −2.11 to −1.81; women: −1.37, −1.74 to −1.01), Lithuania (men: −1.83, −2.07 to −1.59; women: −1.21, −1.36 to −1.05), Chile (men: −1.64, −1.97 to −1.32; women: −0.88, −1.28 to −0.50), and Spain (men: −1.35, −1.53 to −1.18; women: −1.13, −1.37 to −0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% confidence interval ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Islam, N Jdanov, DA Shkolnikov, VM Khunti, K Kawachi, I White, M Lewington, S Lacey, B |
spellingShingle |
Islam, N Jdanov, DA Shkolnikov, VM Khunti, K Kawachi, I White, M Lewington, S Lacey, B Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
author_facet |
Islam, N Jdanov, DA Shkolnikov, VM Khunti, K Kawachi, I White, M Lewington, S Lacey, B |
author_sort |
Islam, N |
title |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_short |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_full |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_fullStr |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_sort |
effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
publisher |
BMJ |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:7101a244-93bb-4bfc-8c83-7d80d21d612c |
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New Zealand Norway |
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New Zealand Norway |
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Iceland |
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Iceland |
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doi:10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:7101a244-93bb-4bfc-8c83-7d80d21d612c https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 |
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e066768 |
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