Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models

We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206–1226, 2015. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a t...

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Published in:Climate Dynamics
Main Authors: Holland, M, Landrum, L, Kostov, Y, Marshall, J
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: Springer 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9
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spelling ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:5d4c1966-a3e2-4b0f-b088-e04b89708eb6 2023-05-15T13:54:08+02:00 Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models Holland, M Landrum, L Kostov, Y Marshall, J 2018-05-11 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5d4c1966-a3e2-4b0f-b088-e04b89708eb6 unknown Springer doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5d4c1966-a3e2-4b0f-b088-e04b89708eb6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9 info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess Journal article 2018 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9 2022-06-28T20:13:21Z We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206–1226, 2015. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th–21st century trends. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Antarctic Austral Ferreira ENVELOPE(-62.050,-62.050,-64.600,-64.600) Climate Dynamics 49 5-6 1813 1831
institution Open Polar
collection ORA - Oxford University Research Archive
op_collection_id ftuloxford
language unknown
description We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206–1226, 2015. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th–21st century trends.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Holland, M
Landrum, L
Kostov, Y
Marshall, J
spellingShingle Holland, M
Landrum, L
Kostov, Y
Marshall, J
Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models
author_facet Holland, M
Landrum, L
Kostov, Y
Marshall, J
author_sort Holland, M
title Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models
title_short Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models
title_full Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models
title_fullStr Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models
title_full_unstemmed Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models
title_sort sensitivity of antarctic sea ice to the southern annular mode in coupled climate models
publisher Springer
publishDate 2018
url https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9
https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5d4c1966-a3e2-4b0f-b088-e04b89708eb6
long_lat ENVELOPE(-62.050,-62.050,-64.600,-64.600)
geographic Antarctic
Austral
Ferreira
geographic_facet Antarctic
Austral
Ferreira
genre Antarc*
Antarctic
Sea ice
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctic
Sea ice
op_relation doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9
https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5d4c1966-a3e2-4b0f-b088-e04b89708eb6
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9
op_rights info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9
container_title Climate Dynamics
container_volume 49
container_issue 5-6
container_start_page 1813
op_container_end_page 1831
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