On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability
The persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a ti...
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ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:34c30b5c-79e1-46e0-9fdd-c4b713f081d6 2024-10-06T13:50:56+00:00 On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability Franzke, C Woollings, T 2016-07-28 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:34c30b5c-79e1-46e0-9fdd-c4b713f081d6 eng eng doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:34c30b5c-79e1-46e0-9fdd-c4b713f081d6 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess Journal article 2016 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 2024-09-06T07:47:31Z The persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a time series of the latitude of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. In previous studies, it has been argued that a slow decay of the autocorrelation function at large lags suggests potential extended-range predictability during the winter season. The authors show that the increased autocorrelation time scale does not necessarily lead to enhanced intraseasonal predictive skill. They estimate the fraction of interannual variability that likely arises due to climate noise as 43%-48% in winter and 70%-71% in summer. The analysis also indentifies a significant poleward trend of the jet stream that cannot be explained as arising from climate noise. These findings have important implications for the predictability of North Atlantic climate variability. © 2011 American Meteorological Society. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Journal of Climate 24 2 466 472 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftuloxford |
language |
English |
description |
The persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a time series of the latitude of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. In previous studies, it has been argued that a slow decay of the autocorrelation function at large lags suggests potential extended-range predictability during the winter season. The authors show that the increased autocorrelation time scale does not necessarily lead to enhanced intraseasonal predictive skill. They estimate the fraction of interannual variability that likely arises due to climate noise as 43%-48% in winter and 70%-71% in summer. The analysis also indentifies a significant poleward trend of the jet stream that cannot be explained as arising from climate noise. These findings have important implications for the predictability of North Atlantic climate variability. © 2011 American Meteorological Society. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Franzke, C Woollings, T |
spellingShingle |
Franzke, C Woollings, T On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
author_facet |
Franzke, C Woollings, T |
author_sort |
Franzke, C |
title |
On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
title_short |
On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
title_full |
On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
title_fullStr |
On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
title_sort |
on the persistence and predictability properties of north atlantic climate variability |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:34c30b5c-79e1-46e0-9fdd-c4b713f081d6 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:34c30b5c-79e1-46e0-9fdd-c4b713f081d6 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
466 |
op_container_end_page |
472 |
_version_ |
1812179070829461504 |