Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble
The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year‐to‐year contributions to multi‐model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S ensem...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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Wiley Open Access
2024
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl108472 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2ee998a2-9721-4383-8c05-c423506a78f2 |
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ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:2ee998a2-9721-4383-8c05-c423506a78f2 2024-09-15T18:21:01+00:00 Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble Baker, LH Shaffrey, LC Johnson, SJ Weisheimer, A 2024-07-31 https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl108472 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2ee998a2-9721-4383-8c05-c423506a78f2 eng eng Wiley Open Access doi:10.1029/2024gl108472 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2ee998a2-9721-4383-8c05-c423506a78f2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl108472 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) Journal article 2024 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl108472 2024-08-12T14:07:56Z The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year‐to‐year contributions to multi‐model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S ensemble of seven prediction systems are assessed for the wintertime NAO and EA, and well‐forecast and poorly‐forecast years are identified. Years with high NAO predictability are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Well‐forecast EA winters also generally occurred when there was substantial tropical forcing, although the relationship was less robust than for the NAO. These results support previous findings of the impacts of tropical forcing on the North Atlantic and show this is important from a multi‐model seasonal forecasting perspective. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Geophysical Research Letters 51 15 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftuloxford |
language |
English |
description |
The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year‐to‐year contributions to multi‐model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S ensemble of seven prediction systems are assessed for the wintertime NAO and EA, and well‐forecast and poorly‐forecast years are identified. Years with high NAO predictability are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Well‐forecast EA winters also generally occurred when there was substantial tropical forcing, although the relationship was less robust than for the NAO. These results support previous findings of the impacts of tropical forcing on the North Atlantic and show this is important from a multi‐model seasonal forecasting perspective. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Baker, LH Shaffrey, LC Johnson, SJ Weisheimer, A |
spellingShingle |
Baker, LH Shaffrey, LC Johnson, SJ Weisheimer, A Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
author_facet |
Baker, LH Shaffrey, LC Johnson, SJ Weisheimer, A |
author_sort |
Baker, LH |
title |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_short |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_full |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble |
title_sort |
understanding the intermittency of the wintertime north atlantic oscillation and east atlantic pattern seasonal forecast skill in the copernicus c3s multi‐model ensemble |
publisher |
Wiley Open Access |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl108472 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2ee998a2-9721-4383-8c05-c423506a78f2 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
doi:10.1029/2024gl108472 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2ee998a2-9721-4383-8c05-c423506a78f2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl108472 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl108472 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
51 |
container_issue |
15 |
_version_ |
1810459405476429824 |