Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends
We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models’ inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:226c9519-68a1-4bdc-88e4-7a517c424a0a |
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ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:226c9519-68a1-4bdc-88e4-7a517c424a0a 2023-05-15T13:34:10+02:00 Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends Kostov, Y Ferreira, D Armour, K Marshall, J 2018-05-11 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:226c9519-68a1-4bdc-88e4-7a517c424a0a unknown Wiley doi:10.1002/2017GL074964 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:226c9519-68a1-4bdc-88e4-7a517c424a0a https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Journal article 2018 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 2022-06-28T20:07:46Z We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models’ inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models’ 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: 1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing; 2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend; 3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 45 2 1086 1097 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftuloxford |
language |
unknown |
description |
We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models’ inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models’ 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: 1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing; 2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend; 3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kostov, Y Ferreira, D Armour, K Marshall, J |
spellingShingle |
Kostov, Y Ferreira, D Armour, K Marshall, J Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends |
author_facet |
Kostov, Y Ferreira, D Armour, K Marshall, J |
author_sort |
Kostov, Y |
title |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends |
title_short |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends |
title_full |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends |
title_fullStr |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends |
title_sort |
contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:226c9519-68a1-4bdc-88e4-7a517c424a0a |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
doi:10.1002/2017GL074964 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:226c9519-68a1-4bdc-88e4-7a517c424a0a https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
45 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
1086 |
op_container_end_page |
1097 |
_version_ |
1766049526906355712 |