The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns
This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based appro...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:1bd76055-d383-44e0-97e1-515609d25333 |
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ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:1bd76055-d383-44e0-97e1-515609d25333 2024-10-06T13:50:59+00:00 The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns Woollings, T Blackburn, M 2016-07-28 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:1bd76055-d383-44e0-97e1-515609d25333 eng eng doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:1bd76055-d383-44e0-97e1-515609d25333 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess Journal article 2016 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1 2024-09-06T07:47:29Z This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based approach. This allows jet stream changes to be related to the widely used leading patterns of variability: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern. Viewed in NAO-EA state space, isolines of jet latitude and speed resemble a distorted polar coordinate system, highlighting the dependence of the jet stream quantities on both spatial patterns. Some differences in the results of the two methods are discussed, but both approaches agree on the general characteristics of the climate models. While there is some agreement between models on a poleward shift of the jet stream in response to anthropogenic forcing, there is still considerable spread between different model projections, especially in winter. Furthermore, the model responses to forcing are often weaker than their biases when compared to a reanalysis. Diagnoses of jet stream changes can be sensitive to the methodologies used, and several aspects of this are also discussed. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Journal of Climate 25 3 886 902 |
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Open Polar |
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ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftuloxford |
language |
English |
description |
This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based approach. This allows jet stream changes to be related to the widely used leading patterns of variability: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern. Viewed in NAO-EA state space, isolines of jet latitude and speed resemble a distorted polar coordinate system, highlighting the dependence of the jet stream quantities on both spatial patterns. Some differences in the results of the two methods are discussed, but both approaches agree on the general characteristics of the climate models. While there is some agreement between models on a poleward shift of the jet stream in response to anthropogenic forcing, there is still considerable spread between different model projections, especially in winter. Furthermore, the model responses to forcing are often weaker than their biases when compared to a reanalysis. Diagnoses of jet stream changes can be sensitive to the methodologies used, and several aspects of this are also discussed. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Woollings, T Blackburn, M |
spellingShingle |
Woollings, T Blackburn, M The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns |
author_facet |
Woollings, T Blackburn, M |
author_sort |
Woollings, T |
title |
The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns |
title_short |
The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns |
title_full |
The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns |
title_fullStr |
The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns |
title_sort |
north atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the nao and ea patterns |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:1bd76055-d383-44e0-97e1-515609d25333 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:1bd76055-d383-44e0-97e1-515609d25333 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
886 |
op_container_end_page |
902 |
_version_ |
1812179121357193216 |