Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake
The impact of uncertainties in air-sea fluxes and ocean model parameters on the ocean circulation and ocean heat uptake (OHU) is assessed in a novel modeling framework. We use an ocean-only model forced with the simulated sea surface fields of the CMIP5 climate models. The simulations are performed...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071587 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:134c0b3a-4a83-444e-8e1d-cfdb926bdab6 |
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ftuloxford:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:134c0b3a-4a83-444e-8e1d-cfdb926bdab6 2023-05-15T18:25:24+02:00 Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake Huber, M Zanna, L 2017-11-20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071587 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:134c0b3a-4a83-444e-8e1d-cfdb926bdab6 unknown Wiley doi:10.1002/2016GL071587 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:134c0b3a-4a83-444e-8e1d-cfdb926bdab6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071587 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) CC-BY Journal article 2017 ftuloxford https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071587 2022-06-28T20:06:19Z The impact of uncertainties in air-sea fluxes and ocean model parameters on the ocean circulation and ocean heat uptake (OHU) is assessed in a novel modeling framework. We use an ocean-only model forced with the simulated sea surface fields of the CMIP5 climate models. The simulations are performed using control and 1% CO 2 warming scenarios. The ocean-only ensemble adequately reproduces the mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the zonally integrated OHU. The ensemble spread in AMOC strength, its weakening, and Atlantic OHU due to different air-sea fluxes is twice as large as the uncertainty range related to vertical and mesocale eddy diffusivities. The sensitivity of OHU to uncertainties in air-sea fluxes and model parameters differs vastly across basins, with the Southern Ocean exhibiting strong sensitivity to air-sea fluxes and model parameters. This study clearly demonstrates that model biases in air-sea fluxes are one of the key sources of uncertainty in climate simulations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean ORA - Oxford University Research Archive Southern Ocean Geophysical Research Letters 44 3 1402 1413 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftuloxford |
language |
unknown |
description |
The impact of uncertainties in air-sea fluxes and ocean model parameters on the ocean circulation and ocean heat uptake (OHU) is assessed in a novel modeling framework. We use an ocean-only model forced with the simulated sea surface fields of the CMIP5 climate models. The simulations are performed using control and 1% CO 2 warming scenarios. The ocean-only ensemble adequately reproduces the mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the zonally integrated OHU. The ensemble spread in AMOC strength, its weakening, and Atlantic OHU due to different air-sea fluxes is twice as large as the uncertainty range related to vertical and mesocale eddy diffusivities. The sensitivity of OHU to uncertainties in air-sea fluxes and model parameters differs vastly across basins, with the Southern Ocean exhibiting strong sensitivity to air-sea fluxes and model parameters. This study clearly demonstrates that model biases in air-sea fluxes are one of the key sources of uncertainty in climate simulations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huber, M Zanna, L |
spellingShingle |
Huber, M Zanna, L Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake |
author_facet |
Huber, M Zanna, L |
author_sort |
Huber, M |
title |
Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake |
title_short |
Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake |
title_full |
Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake |
title_fullStr |
Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake |
title_full_unstemmed |
Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake |
title_sort |
drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071587 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:134c0b3a-4a83-444e-8e1d-cfdb926bdab6 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
doi:10.1002/2016GL071587 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:134c0b3a-4a83-444e-8e1d-cfdb926bdab6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071587 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC Attribution (CC BY) |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071587 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
44 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1402 |
op_container_end_page |
1413 |
_version_ |
1766206840688869376 |