A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland
Icebergs have long been a threat to shipping in the NW Atlantic and the iceberg season of February to late summer is monitored closely by the International Ice Patrol. However, reliable predictions of the severity of a season several months in advance would be useful for planning monitoring strategi...
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ftulincoln:oai:eprints.lincoln.ac.uk:45798 2023-05-15T17:22:27+02:00 A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland Ross, J.B. Bigg, J.R. Zhao, Y. Hanna, E. 2021-07-23 application/pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/45798/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/45798/1/sustainability-13-07705-v2%20%281%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/su13147705 en eng MDPI https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/45798/1/sustainability-13-07705-v2%20%281%29.pdf Ross, J.B., Bigg, J.R., Zhao, Y. and Hanna, E. (2021) A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland. Sustainability, 13 (14). p. 7705. ISSN 2071-1050 doi:10.3390/su13147705 cc_by4 CC-BY F840 Physical Geography Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftulincoln https://doi.org/10.3390/su13147705 2022-03-02T20:14:43Z Icebergs have long been a threat to shipping in the NW Atlantic and the iceberg season of February to late summer is monitored closely by the International Ice Patrol. However, reliable predictions of the severity of a season several months in advance would be useful for planning monitoring strategies and also for shipping companies in designing optimal routes across the North Atlantic for specific years. A seasonal forecast model of the build-up of seasonal iceberg numbers has recently become available, beginning to enable this longer-term planning of marine operations. Here we discuss extension of this control systems model to include more recent years within the trial ensemble sample set and also increasing the number of measures of the iceberg season that are considered within the forecast. These new measures include the seasonal iceberg total, the rate of change of the seasonal increase, the number of peaks in iceberg numbers experienced within a given season, and the timing of the peak(s). They are predicted by a range of machine learning tools. The skill levels of the new measures are tested, as is the impact of the extensions to the existing seasonal forecast model. We present a forecast for the 2021 iceberg season, predicting a medium iceberg year. Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland North Atlantic University of Lincoln: Lincoln Repository Sustainability 13 14 7705 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Lincoln: Lincoln Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftulincoln |
language |
English |
topic |
F840 Physical Geography |
spellingShingle |
F840 Physical Geography Ross, J.B. Bigg, J.R. Zhao, Y. Hanna, E. A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland |
topic_facet |
F840 Physical Geography |
description |
Icebergs have long been a threat to shipping in the NW Atlantic and the iceberg season of February to late summer is monitored closely by the International Ice Patrol. However, reliable predictions of the severity of a season several months in advance would be useful for planning monitoring strategies and also for shipping companies in designing optimal routes across the North Atlantic for specific years. A seasonal forecast model of the build-up of seasonal iceberg numbers has recently become available, beginning to enable this longer-term planning of marine operations. Here we discuss extension of this control systems model to include more recent years within the trial ensemble sample set and also increasing the number of measures of the iceberg season that are considered within the forecast. These new measures include the seasonal iceberg total, the rate of change of the seasonal increase, the number of peaks in iceberg numbers experienced within a given season, and the timing of the peak(s). They are predicted by a range of machine learning tools. The skill levels of the new measures are tested, as is the impact of the extensions to the existing seasonal forecast model. We present a forecast for the 2021 iceberg season, predicting a medium iceberg year. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ross, J.B. Bigg, J.R. Zhao, Y. Hanna, E. |
author_facet |
Ross, J.B. Bigg, J.R. Zhao, Y. Hanna, E. |
author_sort |
Ross, J.B. |
title |
A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland |
title_short |
A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland |
title_full |
A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland |
title_fullStr |
A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland |
title_sort |
combined control systems and machine learning approach to forecasting iceberg flux off newfoundland |
publisher |
MDPI |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/45798/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/45798/1/sustainability-13-07705-v2%20%281%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/su13147705 |
genre |
Newfoundland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/45798/1/sustainability-13-07705-v2%20%281%29.pdf Ross, J.B., Bigg, J.R., Zhao, Y. and Hanna, E. (2021) A Combined Control Systems and Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Iceberg Flux off Newfoundland. Sustainability, 13 (14). p. 7705. ISSN 2071-1050 doi:10.3390/su13147705 |
op_rights |
cc_by4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su13147705 |
container_title |
Sustainability |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
7705 |
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1766109121720877056 |