Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change
We provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice-sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4) C occurred from 1991-2019, but since 2001 overall...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Online Access: | https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/1/JOC-19-0939.R3_Proof_hi_accepted_24jul2020.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/7/joc.6771.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 |
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ftulincoln:oai:eprints.lincoln.ac.uk:41636 2023-05-15T16:23:53+02:00 Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change Hanna, E. Cappelen, J. Fettweis, X. Mernild, S.H. Mote, T.L. Mottram, R. Steffen, K. Ballinger, T.J. Hall, R.J. 2021-01-31 application/pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/1/JOC-19-0939.R3_Proof_hi_accepted_24jul2020.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/7/joc.6771.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 en eng Wiley https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/1/JOC-19-0939.R3_Proof_hi_accepted_24jul2020.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/7/joc.6771.pdf Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S.H., Mote, T.L., Mottram, R., Steffen, K., Ballinger, T.J. and Hall, R.J. (2021) Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change. International Journal of Climatology, 41 (S1). E1336-E1352. ISSN 0899-8418 doi:10.1002/joc.6771 cc_by4 CC-BY F860 Climatology Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftulincoln https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 2022-03-02T20:13:40Z We provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice-sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4) C occurred from 1991-2019, but since 2001 overall temperature trends are generally flat and insignificant due to a cooling pattern over the last 6-7 years. Inland and coastal stations show broadly similar temperature trends for summer. Greenland temperature changes are more strongly correlated with Greenland Blocking than with North Atlantic Oscillation changes. In quantifying the association between Greenland coastal temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass-balance changes, we show a stronger link of temperatures with total mass balance rather than surface mass balance. Based on Greenland coastal temperatures and modelled mass balance for the 1972-2018 period, each 1C of summer warming corresponds to ~ (91) 116 Gt yr-1 of GrIS (surface) mass loss and a 26 Gt yr-1 increase in solid ice discharge. Given an estimated 4.0-6.6C of further Greenland summer warming according to the regional model MAR projections run under CMIP6 future climate projections (SSP5-8.5 scenario), and assuming that ice-dynamical losses and ice sheet topography stay similar to the recent past, linear extrapolation gives a corresponding GrIS global sea-level rise (SLR) contribution of ~10.0-12.6 cm by 2100, compared with the 8-27 cm (mean 15 cm) “likely” model projection range reported by IPCC (2019, SPM.B1.2). However, our estimate represents a lower limit for future GrIS change since fixed dynamical mass losses and amplified melt arising from both melt-albedo and melt-elevation positive feedbacks are not taken into account here. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Lincoln: Lincoln Repository Greenland International Journal of Climatology 41 S1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Lincoln: Lincoln Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftulincoln |
language |
English |
topic |
F860 Climatology |
spellingShingle |
F860 Climatology Hanna, E. Cappelen, J. Fettweis, X. Mernild, S.H. Mote, T.L. Mottram, R. Steffen, K. Ballinger, T.J. Hall, R.J. Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
topic_facet |
F860 Climatology |
description |
We provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice-sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4) C occurred from 1991-2019, but since 2001 overall temperature trends are generally flat and insignificant due to a cooling pattern over the last 6-7 years. Inland and coastal stations show broadly similar temperature trends for summer. Greenland temperature changes are more strongly correlated with Greenland Blocking than with North Atlantic Oscillation changes. In quantifying the association between Greenland coastal temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass-balance changes, we show a stronger link of temperatures with total mass balance rather than surface mass balance. Based on Greenland coastal temperatures and modelled mass balance for the 1972-2018 period, each 1C of summer warming corresponds to ~ (91) 116 Gt yr-1 of GrIS (surface) mass loss and a 26 Gt yr-1 increase in solid ice discharge. Given an estimated 4.0-6.6C of further Greenland summer warming according to the regional model MAR projections run under CMIP6 future climate projections (SSP5-8.5 scenario), and assuming that ice-dynamical losses and ice sheet topography stay similar to the recent past, linear extrapolation gives a corresponding GrIS global sea-level rise (SLR) contribution of ~10.0-12.6 cm by 2100, compared with the 8-27 cm (mean 15 cm) “likely” model projection range reported by IPCC (2019, SPM.B1.2). However, our estimate represents a lower limit for future GrIS change since fixed dynamical mass losses and amplified melt arising from both melt-albedo and melt-elevation positive feedbacks are not taken into account here. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hanna, E. Cappelen, J. Fettweis, X. Mernild, S.H. Mote, T.L. Mottram, R. Steffen, K. Ballinger, T.J. Hall, R.J. |
author_facet |
Hanna, E. Cappelen, J. Fettweis, X. Mernild, S.H. Mote, T.L. Mottram, R. Steffen, K. Ballinger, T.J. Hall, R.J. |
author_sort |
Hanna, E. |
title |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_short |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_full |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_fullStr |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_sort |
greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/1/JOC-19-0939.R3_Proof_hi_accepted_24jul2020.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/7/joc.6771.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/1/JOC-19-0939.R3_Proof_hi_accepted_24jul2020.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/41636/7/joc.6771.pdf Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S.H., Mote, T.L., Mottram, R., Steffen, K., Ballinger, T.J. and Hall, R.J. (2021) Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change. International Journal of Climatology, 41 (S1). E1336-E1352. ISSN 0899-8418 doi:10.1002/joc.6771 |
op_rights |
cc_by4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
41 |
container_issue |
S1 |
_version_ |
1766012243269386240 |