Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models
Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a majo...
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Online Access: | https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/1/Article_v2.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/7/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 |
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ftulincoln:oai:eprints.lincoln.ac.uk:33088 2023-05-15T16:25:15+02:00 Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models Hanna, Edward Fettweis, Xavier Hall, Richard 2018-10-16 application/pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/1/Article_v2.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/7/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 en eng EGU https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/1/Article_v2.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/7/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf Hanna, Edward, Fettweis, Xavier and Hall, Richard (2018) Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models. The Cryosphere, 12 . pp. 3287-3292. ISSN 1994-0416 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 cc_by4 CC-BY F860 Climatology Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftulincoln https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 2022-03-02T20:10:41Z Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950-2100.We find that the recent summer GBI increase 5 lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently-observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over Northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Cryosphere University of Lincoln: Lincoln Repository Greenland The Cryosphere 12 10 3287 3292 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Lincoln: Lincoln Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftulincoln |
language |
English |
topic |
F860 Climatology |
spellingShingle |
F860 Climatology Hanna, Edward Fettweis, Xavier Hall, Richard Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
topic_facet |
F860 Climatology |
description |
Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950-2100.We find that the recent summer GBI increase 5 lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently-observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over Northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hanna, Edward Fettweis, Xavier Hall, Richard |
author_facet |
Hanna, Edward Fettweis, Xavier Hall, Richard |
author_sort |
Hanna, Edward |
title |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_short |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_full |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_fullStr |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_sort |
brief communication: recent changes in summer greenland blocking captured by none of the cmip5 models |
publisher |
EGU |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/1/Article_v2.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/7/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/1/Article_v2.pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/33088/7/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf Hanna, Edward, Fettweis, Xavier and Hall, Richard (2018) Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models. The Cryosphere, 12 . pp. 3287-3292. ISSN 1994-0416 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 |
op_rights |
cc_by4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3287 |
op_container_end_page |
3292 |
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1766013984181321728 |