Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability
The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecast...
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ftulincoln:oai:eprints.lincoln.ac.uk:25972 2023-05-15T17:28:43+02:00 Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability Hall, Richard J. Jones, Julie M. Hanna, Edward Scaife, Adam A. Erdelyi, Robert 2017-06-01 application/pdf https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/25972/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/25972/1/25972%2010.1007%2000382-016-3307-0.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0 en eng Springer Verlag https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/25972/1/25972%2010.1007%2000382-016-3307-0.pdf Hall, Richard J., Jones, Julie M., Hanna, Edward, Scaife, Adam A. and Erdelyi, Robert (2017) Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability. Climate Dynamics, 48 (11-12). pp. 3869-3887. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0 cc_by4 CC-BY F331 Atmospheric Physics Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftulincoln https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0 2022-03-02T20:07:06Z The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research. © 2016 The Author(s) Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Lincoln: Lincoln Repository Climate Dynamics 48 11-12 3869 3887 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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University of Lincoln: Lincoln Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftulincoln |
language |
English |
topic |
F331 Atmospheric Physics |
spellingShingle |
F331 Atmospheric Physics Hall, Richard J. Jones, Julie M. Hanna, Edward Scaife, Adam A. Erdelyi, Robert Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability |
topic_facet |
F331 Atmospheric Physics |
description |
The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research. © 2016 The Author(s) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hall, Richard J. Jones, Julie M. Hanna, Edward Scaife, Adam A. Erdelyi, Robert |
author_facet |
Hall, Richard J. Jones, Julie M. Hanna, Edward Scaife, Adam A. Erdelyi, Robert |
author_sort |
Hall, Richard J. |
title |
Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability |
title_short |
Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability |
title_full |
Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability |
title_fullStr |
Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability |
title_sort |
drivers and potential predictability of summer time north atlantic polar front jet variability |
publisher |
Springer Verlag |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/25972/ https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/25972/1/25972%2010.1007%2000382-016-3307-0.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/id/eprint/25972/1/25972%2010.1007%2000382-016-3307-0.pdf Hall, Richard J., Jones, Julie M., Hanna, Edward, Scaife, Adam A. and Erdelyi, Robert (2017) Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability. Climate Dynamics, 48 (11-12). pp. 3869-3887. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0 |
op_rights |
cc_by4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
11-12 |
container_start_page |
3869 |
op_container_end_page |
3887 |
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1766121563050999808 |