Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering
In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate “real world” with imperfect “observations” and no...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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ftulancaster:oai:eprints.lancs.ac.uk:82373 2023-08-27T04:06:43+02:00 Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering Jackson, L. S. Crook, J. A. Jarvis, Andrew James Leedal, David Thomas Ridgwell, A. Vaughan, Naomi Forster, P. M. 2015-02-28 application/pdf https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/82373/ https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/82373/1/Jackson_et_al_2015_Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062240 en eng https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/82373/1/Jackson_et_al_2015_Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf Jackson, L. S. and Crook, J. A. and Jarvis, Andrew James and Leedal, David Thomas and Ridgwell, A. and Vaughan, Naomi and Forster, P. M. (2015) Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (4). pp. 1223-1231. ISSN 0094-8276 creative_commons_attribution_4_0_international_license Journal Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftulancaster https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062240 2023-08-03T22:30:15Z In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate “real world” with imperfect “observations” and no rerunning or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast “optimal” decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10 years time series data exploited through an annual review cycle, uncertainties in observations and forcings were successfully managed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Sea ice Lancaster University: Lancaster Eprints Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 42 4 1223 1231 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Lancaster University: Lancaster Eprints |
op_collection_id |
ftulancaster |
language |
English |
description |
In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate “real world” with imperfect “observations” and no rerunning or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast “optimal” decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10 years time series data exploited through an annual review cycle, uncertainties in observations and forcings were successfully managed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jackson, L. S. Crook, J. A. Jarvis, Andrew James Leedal, David Thomas Ridgwell, A. Vaughan, Naomi Forster, P. M. |
spellingShingle |
Jackson, L. S. Crook, J. A. Jarvis, Andrew James Leedal, David Thomas Ridgwell, A. Vaughan, Naomi Forster, P. M. Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering |
author_facet |
Jackson, L. S. Crook, J. A. Jarvis, Andrew James Leedal, David Thomas Ridgwell, A. Vaughan, Naomi Forster, P. M. |
author_sort |
Jackson, L. S. |
title |
Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering |
title_short |
Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering |
title_full |
Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering |
title_sort |
assessing the controllability of arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/82373/ https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/82373/1/Jackson_et_al_2015_Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062240 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/82373/1/Jackson_et_al_2015_Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf Jackson, L. S. and Crook, J. A. and Jarvis, Andrew James and Leedal, David Thomas and Ridgwell, A. and Vaughan, Naomi and Forster, P. M. (2015) Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (4). pp. 1223-1231. ISSN 0094-8276 |
op_rights |
creative_commons_attribution_4_0_international_license |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062240 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
42 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1223 |
op_container_end_page |
1231 |
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1775347531098619904 |