Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system
Using 14 year (1996-2009) ensemble hindcast runs produced with the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 4 (GloSea4), this study evaluates the spatial and temporal structure of the hindcast climatology and the prediction skill of major climate variability. A special focus is on the fidelity of...
Published in: | Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences |
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KOREAN METEOROLOGICAL SOC
2014
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Online Access: | https://scholarworks.unist.ac.kr/handle/201301/3984 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0019-4 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84904255803 |
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ftuisanist:oai:scholarworks.unist.ac.kr:201301/3984 2023-12-10T09:45:53+01:00 Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system Lee, Myong-In Kang, Hyun-Suk Kim, Daehyun Kim, Dongmin Kim, Hyerim Kang, Daehyun 2014-05 https://scholarworks.unist.ac.kr/handle/201301/3984 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0019-4 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84904255803 ?????? unknown KOREAN METEOROLOGICAL SOC ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, v.50, no.3, pp.307 - 326 1976-7633 https://scholarworks.unist.ac.kr/handle/201301/3984 1106 13341 2-s2.0-84904255803 000336812300006 doi:10.1007/s13143-014-0019-4 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84904255803 ARTICLE ART 2014 ftuisanist https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0019-4 2023-11-10T01:36:35Z Using 14 year (1996-2009) ensemble hindcast runs produced with the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 4 (GloSea4), this study evaluates the spatial and temporal structure of the hindcast climatology and the prediction skill of major climate variability. A special focus is on the fidelity of the system to reproduce and to forecast phenomena that are closely related to the East Asian climate. Overall the GloSea4 system exhibits realistic representations of the basic climate even though a few model deficiencies are identified in the sea surface temperature and precipitation. In particular, the capability of GloSea4 to capture the seasonal migration of rain belt associated with Changma implies a good potential for the Asian summer monsoon prediction. It is found that GloSea4 is as skillful as other state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems in forecasting climate variability including the El-Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), the East Asian summer monsoon, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The results presented in this study will provide benchmark evaluation for next seasonal prediction systems to be developed at the Korea Meteorological Administration. close 0 1 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic ScholarWorks@UNIST (Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology) Arctic Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 50 3 307 326 |
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ScholarWorks@UNIST (Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology) |
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ftuisanist |
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unknown |
description |
Using 14 year (1996-2009) ensemble hindcast runs produced with the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 4 (GloSea4), this study evaluates the spatial and temporal structure of the hindcast climatology and the prediction skill of major climate variability. A special focus is on the fidelity of the system to reproduce and to forecast phenomena that are closely related to the East Asian climate. Overall the GloSea4 system exhibits realistic representations of the basic climate even though a few model deficiencies are identified in the sea surface temperature and precipitation. In particular, the capability of GloSea4 to capture the seasonal migration of rain belt associated with Changma implies a good potential for the Asian summer monsoon prediction. It is found that GloSea4 is as skillful as other state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems in forecasting climate variability including the El-Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), the East Asian summer monsoon, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The results presented in this study will provide benchmark evaluation for next seasonal prediction systems to be developed at the Korea Meteorological Administration. close 0 1 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lee, Myong-In Kang, Hyun-Suk Kim, Daehyun Kim, Dongmin Kim, Hyerim Kang, Daehyun |
spellingShingle |
Lee, Myong-In Kang, Hyun-Suk Kim, Daehyun Kim, Dongmin Kim, Hyerim Kang, Daehyun Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system |
author_facet |
Lee, Myong-In Kang, Hyun-Suk Kim, Daehyun Kim, Dongmin Kim, Hyerim Kang, Daehyun |
author_sort |
Lee, Myong-In |
title |
Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system |
title_short |
Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system |
title_full |
Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system |
title_fullStr |
Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system |
title_full_unstemmed |
Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system |
title_sort |
validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the glosea4 seasonal prediction system |
publisher |
KOREAN METEOROLOGICAL SOC |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://scholarworks.unist.ac.kr/handle/201301/3984 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0019-4 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84904255803 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, v.50, no.3, pp.307 - 326 1976-7633 https://scholarworks.unist.ac.kr/handle/201301/3984 1106 13341 2-s2.0-84904255803 000336812300006 doi:10.1007/s13143-014-0019-4 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84904255803 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0019-4 |
container_title |
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
307 |
op_container_end_page |
326 |
_version_ |
1784889186065580032 |