Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate...
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Online Access: | https://pure.uhi.ac.uk/en/publications/cd679fdf-2def-4ec9-b8e1-416a806c6956 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0?W.ame=subjects_palaeoceanography https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/284480 |
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ftuhipublicatio:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/cd679fdf-2def-4ec9-b8e1-416a806c6956 2024-09-15T17:40:27+00:00 Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond Fischer, Hubertus Meissner, Katrin J. Mix, Alan C. Holloway, Max 2018-06-25 https://pure.uhi.ac.uk/en/publications/cd679fdf-2def-4ec9-b8e1-416a806c6956 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0?W.ame=subjects_palaeoceanography https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/284480 eng eng https://pure.uhi.ac.uk/en/publications/cd679fdf-2def-4ec9-b8e1-416a806c6956 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Fischer , H , Meissner , K J , Mix , A C & Holloway , M 2018 , ' Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond ' , Nature Geoscience , vol. 11 , no. 7 , pp. 474-485 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 article 2018 ftuhipublicatio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 2024-08-12T23:37:04Z Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise. Main Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland University of the Highlands and Islands: Research Database of UHI Nature Geoscience 11 7 474 485 |
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University of the Highlands and Islands: Research Database of UHI |
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English |
description |
Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise. Main |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fischer, Hubertus Meissner, Katrin J. Mix, Alan C. Holloway, Max |
spellingShingle |
Fischer, Hubertus Meissner, Katrin J. Mix, Alan C. Holloway, Max Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
author_facet |
Fischer, Hubertus Meissner, Katrin J. Mix, Alan C. Holloway, Max |
author_sort |
Fischer, Hubertus |
title |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_short |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_full |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_fullStr |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_full_unstemmed |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_sort |
palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °c anthropogenic warming and beyond |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://pure.uhi.ac.uk/en/publications/cd679fdf-2def-4ec9-b8e1-416a806c6956 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0?W.ame=subjects_palaeoceanography https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/284480 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_source |
Fischer , H , Meissner , K J , Mix , A C & Holloway , M 2018 , ' Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond ' , Nature Geoscience , vol. 11 , no. 7 , pp. 474-485 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 |
op_relation |
https://pure.uhi.ac.uk/en/publications/cd679fdf-2def-4ec9-b8e1-416a806c6956 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 |
container_title |
Nature Geoscience |
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11 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
474 |
op_container_end_page |
485 |
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1810486502943096832 |