Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil

The objective of this work is to evaluate the subseasonal precipitation simulations of the Eta model during the onset of the rainy season in the Sao Francisco River Basin (SFB). Accumulated precipitation every 20 days in September and October (2011 to 2015) was evaluated based on subseasonal simulat...

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Main Authors:	Santos, Maria Luisa Rocha, Resende Ferreira, Nicole Costa, Dereczynski, Claudine, Vasconcellos, Fernanda Cerqueira, Chou, Sin Chan
Other Authors:	INPE, UFRJ, CAPES, ANA
Format:	Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:	English
Published:	Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro 2023
Subjects:	Rainy season onset Eta Regional Climate Model CFSR Eta Arctic
Online Access:	https://revistas.ufrj.br/index.php/aigeo/article/view/59421 https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2023_46_59421

id	ftufriodejaneiro:oai:www.revistas.ufrj.br:article/59421
record_format	openpolar
institution	Open Polar
collection	Portal de Periódicos da UFRJ (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
op_collection_id	ftufriodejaneiro
language	English
topic	Rainy season onset Eta Regional Climate Model CFSR
spellingShingle	Rainy season onset Eta Regional Climate Model CFSR Santos, Maria Luisa Rocha Resende Ferreira, Nicole Costa Dereczynski, Claudine Vasconcellos, Fernanda Cerqueira Chou, Sin Chan Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil
topic_facet	Rainy season onset Eta Regional Climate Model CFSR
description	The objective of this work is to evaluate the subseasonal precipitation simulations of the Eta model during the onset of the rainy season in the Sao Francisco River Basin (SFB). Accumulated precipitation every 20 days in September and October (2011 to 2015) was evaluated based on subseasonal simulations (integration period of up to 60 days) of the Eta-20-km model, nested within the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), here called Eta-CFSR. MERGE precipitation data were used to evaluate Eta-CFSR simulated precipitation. A statistical method was employed to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate the onset of the rainy season in the Upper SFB. The main results are: i) The Eta-CFSR accurately represents the seasonality of the precipitation pattern in the SFB and the seasonal and interannual variation of the accumulated precipitation in all of the chosen three consecutive 20-day periods of years 2011 to 2015; ii) The model can represent the transition pattern from the dry to the rainy season, showing better results in 2011 and 2015, which were marked, respectively, by La Niña and El Niño, and by anomalies of sea surface temperature favorable and unfavorable for the occurrence of precipitation; iii) Although the model underestimates the amount of precipitation, it effectively captures the seasonal patterns and the onset of the rainy season, with a maximum advancement of two pentads in wetter years and delaying it in drier years.
author2	INPE, UFRJ, CAPES, ANA
format	Article in Journal/Newspaper
author	Santos, Maria Luisa Rocha Resende Ferreira, Nicole Costa Dereczynski, Claudine Vasconcellos, Fernanda Cerqueira Chou, Sin Chan
author_facet	Santos, Maria Luisa Rocha Resende Ferreira, Nicole Costa Dereczynski, Claudine Vasconcellos, Fernanda Cerqueira Chou, Sin Chan
author_sort	Santos, Maria Luisa Rocha
title	Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil
title_short	Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil
title_full	Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil
title_fullStr	Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil
title_sort	evaluation of precipitation simulations at the subseasonal range in the sao francisco river basin, brazil
publisher	Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
publishDate	2023
url	https://revistas.ufrj.br/index.php/aigeo/article/view/59421 https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2023_46_59421
long_lat	ENVELOPE(-62.917,-62.917,-64.300,-64.300)
geographic	Eta
geographic_facet	Eta
genre	Arctic
genre_facet	Arctic
op_source	Anuário do Instituto de Geociências; v. 46 (2023) 1982-3908 0101-9759
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op_rights	Direitos autorais 2023 Anuário do Instituto de Geociências https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
op_doi	https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2023_46_5942110.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<0341:OTFOTS>2.0.CO;210.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0263:TENIOT>2.0.CO;210.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1234:NASAEC>2.0.CO;210.1007/BF0110407710.1175/1520-0450(1970)009<0857:TMROWS>2.0.CO;21
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spelling	ftufriodejaneiro:oai:www.revistas.ufrj.br:article/59421 2023-12-10T09:44:07+01:00 Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil Santos, Maria Luisa Rocha Resende Ferreira, Nicole Costa Dereczynski, Claudine Vasconcellos, Fernanda Cerqueira Chou, Sin Chan INPE, UFRJ, CAPES, ANA 2023-11-03 application/pdf https://revistas.ufrj.br/index.php/aigeo/article/view/59421 https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2023_46_59421 eng eng Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro https://revistas.ufrj.br/index.php/aigeo/article/view/59421/pdf Aceituno, P. 1988, 'On the functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American sector, Part I: Surface climate', Monthly Weather Review, vol. 116, pp. 505-24, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<0341:OTFOTS>2.0.CO;2. Alves, L.M.J.A., Júnior, H.C. & Castro, C. 2005, 'Início da estação chuvosa na região sudeste do Brasil: parte 1 – Estudos observacionais', Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 385-94. ANA – Agência Nacional de Águas, GEF – Fundo para o Meio Ambiente Mundial, PNUMA – Programa das Nações Unidas para o Meio Ambiente, OEA – Organização dos Estados Americanos 2004, Subprojeto 4.5C – Plano Decenal de Recursos Hídricos da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio São Francisco-PBHSF (2004-2013), Projeto de gerenciamneto integrado das Atividades desenvolvidas em terra na bacia do Rio São Francisco, Brasília. Baldwin, M.P., Stephenson, D.B., Thompson, D.W., Dunkerton, T.J., Charlton, A.J. & O'Neill, A. 2003, 'Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts', Science, vol. 301, no. 5633, pp. 636-40, DOI:10.1126/science.1087143. Barros, V.R., Grimm, A.M. & Doyle, M.E. 2002, 'Relationship between temperature and circulation in Southeastern South America and its influence from El Ninño and La Ninña events', Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Ser. II, vol. 80, no. 1, pp. 21-32, DOI:10.2151/jmsj.80.21. Betts, A.K. & Miller, M.J. 1986, 'A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX and arctic air‐mass data sets', Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 112, no. 473, pp. 693-709, DOI:10.1002/qj.49711247308. Byrne, N.J. & Shepherd, T.G. 2018, 'Seasonal persistence of circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere and its implications for the troposphere', Journal of Climate, vol. 31, no. 9, pp. 3467-83, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0557.1. 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Marengo (eds), Climate change in Santos Brazil: Projections, impacts and adaptation options, Springer, Cham, pp. 59-73, DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-96535-2_4. Chou, S.C., Resende, N., Rocha, M.L., Dereczynski, C.P., Gomes, J.L., & Sueiro, G. 2018, From Subseasonal to Seasonal forecasts over South America using the Eta Model, Numerial Weather, Belgrado. Dereczynski, C., Chou, S.C., Lyra, A., Sondermann, M., Regoto, P., Tavares, P., Chagas, D., Gomes, J.L., Rodrigues, D.C. & de los Milagros Skansi, M. 2020, 'Downscaling of climate extremes over South America–Part I: Model evaluation in the reference climate', Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 29, 100273, DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2020.100273. Domeisen, D.I., Garfinkel, C.I. & Butler, A.H. 2019, 'The teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the stratosphere', Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 57, no. 1, pp. 5-47, DOI:10.1029/2018RG000596. 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Direitos autorais 2023 Anuário do Instituto de Geociências https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en Anuário do Instituto de Geociências; v. 46 (2023) 1982-3908 0101-9759 Rainy season onset Eta Regional Climate Model CFSR info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2023 ftufriodejaneiro https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2023_46_5942110.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<0341:OTFOTS>2.0.CO;210.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0263:TENIOT>2.0.CO;210.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1234:NASAEC>2.0.CO;210.1007/BF0110407710.1175/1520-0450(1970)009<0857:TMROWS>2.0.CO;21 2023-11-12T01:30:44Z The objective of this work is to evaluate the subseasonal precipitation simulations of the Eta model during the onset of the rainy season in the Sao Francisco River Basin (SFB). Accumulated precipitation every 20 days in September and October (2011 to 2015) was evaluated based on subseasonal simulations (integration period of up to 60 days) of the Eta-20-km model, nested within the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), here called Eta-CFSR. MERGE precipitation data were used to evaluate Eta-CFSR simulated precipitation. A statistical method was employed to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate the onset of the rainy season in the Upper SFB. The main results are: i) The Eta-CFSR accurately represents the seasonality of the precipitation pattern in the SFB and the seasonal and interannual variation of the accumulated precipitation in all of the chosen three consecutive 20-day periods of years 2011 to 2015; ii) The model can represent the transition pattern from the dry to the rainy season, showing better results in 2011 and 2015, which were marked, respectively, by La Niña and El Niño, and by anomalies of sea surface temperature favorable and unfavorable for the occurrence of precipitation; iii) Although the model underestimates the amount of precipitation, it effectively captures the seasonal patterns and the onset of the rainy season, with a maximum advancement of two pentads in wetter years and delaying it in drier years. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Portal de Periódicos da UFRJ (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro) Eta ENVELOPE(-62.917,-62.917,-64.300,-64.300)

Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil

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