An analysis of daily maximum wind speed in northwestern Europe using generalized linear models

• Main Authors: Yan, ZW, Bate, S, Chandler, RE, Isham, V, Wheater, H
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC 2002
• Subjects: NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; DAILY RAINFALL DATA; GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT; ARCTIC OSCILLATION; TEMPERATURE; TRENDS; EXTREMES; CLIMATE; Arctic; Global warming; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/86058/

The basic climatological pattern and recent trends in daily maximum wind speed (DMWS) for the region 47.5degrees-65degreesN and 12.5degreesW-22.5degreesE are studied using gamma distributions within a generalized linear model. Between 1958 and 1998, DMWS has increased over the ocean in winter but weakened over continental Europe in summer. Large-scale circulation changes such as those of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for the strengthening wind over the ocean. Global warming may have impacted the regional wind climate. In particular, Southern Hemisphere temperature exhibits a significant effect on the distinct oceanic and continental trends in DMWS. It is suggested that the steady warming of the Southern Hemisphere during the last few decades may have forced the North Atlantic storm track to shift in such a way that storms are enhanced toward the northwestern oceanic area, but weakened throughout most of the European continent.